Colombia approaches a pivotal Sunday with widespread unrest shaping the political landscape. At the center of the race are Gustavo Petro and Rodolfo Hernández, a pair contending for the votes of roughly 39 million people amid a notably nontraditional contest. Forecasts for election night point to a tense showdown, where the margin between the candidates remains razor-thin. This vote stands out because neither contender stems from the country’s entrenched party system. The Historical Pact represents fresh currents in Colombian politics, while the established political elites largely stay on the sidelines as the nation reflects on the aftermath of the 2016 peace accord and the street protests that roiled the country in 2019 and 2021.
Petro has long been associated with guerrilla roots yet has spent decades maneuvering within formal politics. Hernández, by contrast, built a business empire after a brief tenure as mayor of Bucaramanga, amassing an estimated fortune near 100 million dollars. He is nicknamed the “old man from TikTok” for turning social media into a central campaign engine against the political establishment. Some analysts compare his style to Nayib Bukele of El Salvador rather than to Donald Trump. Hernández enjoyed backing from the Conservative and Liberal parties. While many in the political class discounted him, the Uribismo faction remained steadfast and urged a vote for Hernández, arguing that a moderate left victory tied to Cold War-era socialism would be worse. A segment of the liberal camp has rebelled against its leadership and seems inclined toward the Historical Pact. Even within the political center, cautious leaning in that direction is evident. Beyond these alignments, nearly two million undecided voters keep the outcome in suspense.
Observers describe a high‑risk moment as Petro and Hernández expand their reach across the country with unprecedented visibility. The Election Observation Mission notes the period as one of the most volatile in the last dozen years. In 2022, violence punctured the electoral landscape with the killings of 86 social leaders and 21 former FARC members who had laid down arms in 2016. The atmosphere feels charged with risk. The Office of the Ombudsman warned this Sunday of elevated threats of political violence involving FARC or ELN opponents, far‑right paramilitary groups, or drug‑trafficking networks across 290 municipalities.
the weight of inequality
The clash between Petro and Hernández is not accidental. Colombia’s economy rebounded from pandemic shocks with a robust recovery in 2021, marked by a 10.6 percent growth, and continued momentum since. Yet roughly 40 percent of the population still lives in poverty. Colombia remains among the most unequal economies in Latin America, with disparity rankings that place it just behind Brazil and Guatemala in the region. The OECD notes that climbing from the lowest incomes to the middle class typically spans generations; for many Colombian families, the journey from the bottom rung to a middle-income status may take about eleven generations. That stark gap helps explain recurring social tensions and fuels openness to political alternatives across the spectrum.
Recent events highlight how inequality intersects with politics and daily life, shaping citizens’ views on needs, governance, and accountability. A growing portion of the electorate seeks credible change agents who can address both economic and social grievances without merely offering slogans.
A media item circulated during the campaign’s final stretch and then spread across social networks, illustrating how information and misinformation move in tandem during elections. The report described an exotic celebration aboard a yacht near Miami, featuring Hernández alongside figures labeled as lobbyists and a generation of dynamic supporters. The episode underscores how perception and narrative can influence voter sentiment even before official tallies are confirmed. [Citation: report on campaign communications and online discourse]