Researchers from the Paul Scherrer Institute in Switzerland joined forces with colleagues from the United States, China, Ireland, Finland, and Sweden to run a comprehensive climate simulation on a high-performance supercomputer. Their goal was to explore how Earth’s climate might respond under a range of future pathways and to assess what it would take to avoid dangerous levels of warming. The study’s findings have been compiled and published on a scientific information platform dedicated to accessible, data-driven research.
To build this analysis, the team integrated climate projections with economics-based models and evaluated a wide array of energy technologies. In total, 1200 options for energy production and consumption were examined, alongside strategies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. This dual focus allowed the researchers to estimate not only how the climate could evolve, but also how policy choices and technological shifts might influence those outcomes.
During the simulation phase, the computer generated a large set of scenarios—roughly 4,000 in all—that spanned ten-year increments through the year 2100 and covered 15 distinct global regions. The modeling accounted for a spectrum of possible developments in technology, policy, and market dynamics, as well as natural variability, to provide a broad picture of potential futures. A striking result emerged: about 70 percent of these scenarios indicated that global mean temperatures could exceed the critical 1.5 degree Celsius threshold within the coming five years if current trajectories continue. Crossing this threshold is associated with risks that science warns could become irreversible and lead to severe, enduring impacts on ecosystems, weather extremes, sea levels, and human systems. This finding underscores the urgency of keeping warming within the 1.5 C target, a benchmark widely recognized by climate experts as foundational to reducing the risk of threshold-driven tipping points.
As the team notes, the exercise offers actionable insights for formulating climate action plans. By illustrating how different energy systems and emission pathways interact with climatic responses, the research helps policymakers, industry leaders, and communities envision practical steps—ranging from accelerating clean energy deployment to implementing more efficient technologies and stronger emission controls—that could bend the trajectory toward safer warming limits. The study provides a framework for evaluating trade-offs, costs, and benefits across regions, enabling more informed decision-making in the face of complex, interdependent climate and economic dynamics.
Looking ahead, the researchers emphasize the importance of using such simulations as a decision-support tool: a way to stress-test proposed policies, compare ambitious yet feasible pathways, and identify leverage points where targeted investments could yield meaningful climate benefits. The collaboration demonstrates how high-performance computing, when coupled with robust climate and economic modeling, can illuminate the potential consequences of different choices and help steer efforts toward a resilient, low-emission future. The work also highlights the value of international scientific collaboration in advancing our understanding of climate risks and the steps needed to safeguard communities and economies against future shocks.
In summary, the climate modeling study demonstrates that without decisive action, a substantial share of probable futures points to surpassing the 1.5 degree limit, reinforcing the call for immediate, coordinated efforts to shift toward lower-emission energy systems and more efficient resource use. The research stands as a rigorous, data-driven contribution to the ongoing global conversation about climate risk, mitigation strategies, and the practical pathways available to nations as they strive to meet science-based targets and protect long-term planetary health.
Attribution: Paul Scherrer Institute and collaborating institutions.