The latest official data from China’s Office for National Statistics show a continuing trend of population decline, placing China as the world’s second most populous country with about 2.08 million fewer residents than the previous year.
This marks the second consecutive year of contraction, following a 2022 drop of 850,000 people. That earlier decline was the first since 1961 when the Great Leap Forward policies led to a population squeeze that had lasting effects on demographic dynamics.
China closed 2023 with a population of 1,409.67 million, down from 1,411.75 million at the end of the prior year, a decrease of 2.08 million or 0.14 percent. The numbers confirm a negative demographic trend that Chinese officials have warned about for years and that observers have long anticipated would shape policy and economic prospects.
Births last year totaled 9.02 million, a drop from 9.5 million in 2022, despite ongoing efforts by national and local authorities to encourage family formation. Experts anticipated in late 2023 that births would continue to decline for a seventh consecutive year, driven by fewer registered marriages and an aging cohort among younger Chinese citizens.
Official data show a gender imbalance with 720.3 million men and 689.4 million women, a ratio of 104.49 men for every 100 women. Mortality rose as well, increasing from 10.41 million to 11.1 million deaths in the period covered.
Even with the policy allowance of a third child since 2021, public enthusiasm remains muted due to the heavy economic burden of parenting and the priority many place on career advancement.
During the 20th Congress of the Communist Party in 2022 the leadership underscored the need for a system that raises birth rates while reducing the costs of pregnancy, birth, education, and parenting. Analysts have warned that a shrinking population could curb the workforce and slow economic growth, while pressures on social security programs rise as the population ages.
Experts close to academic institutions have offered sobering projections. A scholar from Fudan University foresees that China’s population will continue to decline in the coming years, driven by deaths surpassing births. While newborns may rebound slightly in some years, they are unlikely to exceed 10 million annually, even as death rates trend higher over time.
Meanwhile, another economist from Nankai University has called for a more integrated policy framework to support family life. The idea is to create an environment where childbearing is more feasible and equitable across the country, with consistent measures that reduce regional disparities and encourage broader participation in childrearing and education investment.
Looking ahead, projections suggest that by around 2035, the population aged 60 and older in China could exceed 400 million, approaching one third of the nation’s total. Earlier UN estimates had noted that neighboring India had surpassed China to become the world’s most populous country, highlighting a shifting global demographic balance and the need for policy planning that addresses aging, labor supply, and social welfare on a wide scale.