What China calls itinerant diplomacy marks its second attempt to steer a path through the Ukraine conflict from the capitals most involved. Li Hui, the Eurasia special envoy, will begin a tour that includes Kiev, Moscow, and Brussels, with additional stops in Paris, Berlin, and Warsaw to be scheduled. Analysts are skeptical about the chances of success, given the deep entrenchment of the parties and the high stakes involved in the battlefield and diplomacy alike.
From Beijing, the new push has been promoted as a chance to secure a political solution, underscoring China’s role as a mediator. A spokesperson for the Foreign Ministry stated that the ongoing efforts aim to build consensus to end the war and pave the way to peace. The approach emphasizes a persistent, though cautious, diplomatic involvement intended to lift regional support for peace and to contribute Chinese wisdom to the process.
It seems unlikely Li will achieve a breakthrough. Even the most stubborn and skilled mediator would struggle if the combatants remain determined to harden their positions on the ground. The conflict shows no clear end in sight after a third year, with thousands of casualties. Ukraine has faced recent losses of strategic footholds, a shortfall in promised ammunition from the European Union, and fears over continued U.S. support. Russia has not yet seen the anticipated economic collapse touted by Western observers, thanks in part to ties with the Global South. Neither side has shown a real desire to sit down and talk.
China’s staging of the effort
Dedicating time to what appears to be a measured testing-ground of diplomacy, observers wonder why Beijing is pushing this approach. The campaign is framed as neither a capitulation nor a dismissal of discussions, but a push to reframe the conflict in terms of a broader political settlement. Chinese leader Xi Jinping is rumored to be planning a European itinerary, during which Li could refine Beijing’s messaging on the Ukrainian crisis. Analysts suggest the changes in China’s intermediary stance would respond to European concerns and balance regional anxieties about the war’s broader impact.
China has claimed a position of equidistance that Western observers deny. The country has not condemned the invasion but has urged respect for Ukraine’s sovereignty. The twelve-point plan presented last year, which called for an immediate ceasefire, drew applause in parts of the Global South while meeting criticism in Brussels and Washington for not clearly distinguishing aggressor from defender. Those doubts already undermined Li’s earlier tour through the same capitals.
Last year’s meetings included high-level engagement with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. Li’s return to Beijing was marked by cautious optimism about negotiations, but signs indicated that the parties were not ready to move toward a formal peace table. The sense at the time was that the situation had not matured enough to bridge core gaps.
Leaning toward Russia
Li Hui has long been associated with strong ties to Moscow, a fact that has colored perceptions of his role. His career, spanning decades in the Foreign Ministry, reflects a deep familiarity with the Russian sphere. Fluent in Russian and steeped in the culture, Li is viewed by many colleagues as intimately aware of the Russian perspective. This background informs his approach and the expectations surrounding his diplomatic mission in Europe and beyond.