Chileans face a day of high stakes on Sunday, September 4, when they will cast votes that determine the fate of the country. The 2019 social explosion sparked a demand for a new founding text, a momentum that carried strong sympathy as the constitution drafting began. If the latest polls hold, the option to Reject could win by a margin of six to ten points. This outcome carries a paradox that confounds some: two years earlier, amid the protests, a large majority wished for a Magna Carta at the ballot box to end the lingering vestiges of the General’s era, Augusto Pinochet, which lasted from 1973 to 1990. That same moment shows the political curve is not straightforward: those who oppose a constitution shaped primarily by leftist conventions include nostalgics, some elements of the moderate right, and even portions of the center-left that opposed the dictatorship in the 1980s.
The Boric government links much of its credibility to a cause that polls have suggested has faded, the idea of approving a new constitution. Yet around the 36-year-old president there is a belief that the electoral contest could be closer than many observers predict. Marta Lagos, director of Latinobarómetro, has called this moment a powerful, almost invisible mobilization that could shift current estimates. The enthusiasm of about 12 million Chileans to know where to vote on September 4 invites cautious interpretation. In 2020, Lagos noted to Counter that if 12 million people participate, the result would resemble a participatory revolution, a profoundly democratic movement that could yield the same outcome regardless of the side that wins.
multiple scenarios
Marco Moreno, dean of the Faculty of Political Sciences at the Central University of Chile, outlines four possible paths. First, a surprising, decisive victory for the Magna Carta that surprises the polls. Second, a narrow victory for the Apruebo side, which would push for a renewed constitutional process. A smaller margin for the Rechazo camp is the third scenario, which could prompt a strategic pause and a careful rethinking of any future changes. The fourth possibility is a clear Rechazo win, creating uncertainty and giving the right a trigger to slow or halt reforms.
Meanwhile, the campaign intensifies, though the rules of the game are not always clear. A recent Rechazo advertisement highlighted the road ahead filled with disinformation and fake narratives. A young man claimed to have faced violence from a client in a male solicitation scenario, saying, If Chile had loved more, the text would have been approved. It later emerged that he was not a sex worker but an actor who revealed his role online, illustrating how misrepresentation can sway public perception.
Supporters of Apruebo are trying to recapture the energy that swept millions into the discussion in 2019. Writer Patricio Fernández, who later joined the Convention that drafted the text, described a narrative of disappointment in the aftermath. He warned that a victory by the Red side might set in motion a process in which all democratically minded participants must engage, and that Chile faced a potential disaster if the conversation was dominated by rigid right-wing factions that resisted broader participation. For Fernández, the missed opportunity lay in marginalizing voices that could have broadened consensus.
What awaits Boric?
The president has urged changes to constitutional provisions that generate more rejection if the consensus leans toward Consent. Observers recall the risk that September 4 or 5 could resemble the political moment faced by Sebastián Piñera in November 2019. A political scientist, Daniel Mansuy, noted that a Rechazo could raise questions about the president’s power and the authority to push reforms if the outcome diverges from expectations.
For now, the government spokesperson, Camila Vallejo, dismissed the notion that a new constituent plebiscite would be convened if demands were unmet. He stressed that such a move would be unnecessary given the strong support for a new foundational text in 2020. The aim remains to have leaders from both government and opposition work together to map out scenarios that reassure the public, whatever unfolds on September 4.