In the wake of recent events, the threat landscape in Europe has shifted. The attack in Brussels, attributed to Abdesalam Lassoued, and the rapid evacuation of large groups two days later, marked a tense moment as passengers returned from ten French airports. Within a few weeks, the region observed renewed travel across the continent, while the specter of jihad loomed. Although ISIS claimed the double murder, no clear evidence linked this surge to a resurgent movement or to Al Qaeda. Yet the period sharpened the focus on a real terrorist risk tied to Islamic extremism that public officials and citizens alike cannot ignore, placing police preparedness and alert levels at the center of political discussion across Europe.
Authorities emphasize that, at present, signs of a full revival among the West’s Islamist networks remain unconfirmed. One senior figure from Spain’s counterterrorism efforts notes that any shift would likely involve a change in tactics rather than a wholesale organizational reformation. The crisis has sparked debate about whether Hamas and Israel’s conflict could trigger a broader radical realignment among fundamentalist groups.
Tinder and sparks
Independent sources agree on a core point: the most immediate danger comes from lone actors who strike without centralized command. The fear is that one radical spark could ignite a wider sequence of acts. In the words of a veteran analyst, the evolution of jihadist networks remains unpredictable and contingent on a constellation of factors, not a single blueprint.
Since early October, extreme factions have intensified their online propaganda, feeding group chats and social networks with two dominant narratives. The first frames the Gaza-Israel clashes in a triumphalist, almost theatrical tone, depicting militants moving with paragliders and rocket launchers while voices rally support. The second centers on grievance and vengeance, highlighting civilian suffering caused by intensified bombardments.
What complicates the picture is that this propaganda tends to advocate for a Palestinian cause without endorsing a universal caliphate. An experienced anti-jihadist practitioner notes that ISIS’s incitement to violence rarely maps directly onto Palestinian political aims, yet a lone radical could still be drawn into action by any number of provocations. The concern is the presence of small-scale radicals rather than a formal network driving events.
This hypothesis also shapes how police information services approach risk: ongoing monitoring and early warning remain central, with emphasis on preventing solo attacks before they occur.
Benefits and cautions
With tensions in the Middle East, there is a palpable risk that veterans might re-enter the fray and that new extremists could emerge. During a recent gathering with European partners in Luxembourg, internal affairs ministers underscored the importance of countering online misinformation and combating hate speech in all its forms, including antisemitism and Islamophobia.
Analysts describe a climate of opportunistic threats rather than a straightforward revival of ISIS or Al Qaeda. The ongoing conflict has created a chaotic mix of motives and actors, complicating predictions about future attacks. A senior Civil Guard counterterrorism official highlights that the variability of this threat makes prevention even more critical, noting that multiple actors could adapt to shifting circumstances.
The same expert underscores a sobering point: ISIS and Al Qaeda will likely look for openings to expand influence, researching in particular how the Palestinian-Israeli dispute has historically served as a catalyst for propaganda and recruitment. The possibility that these groups will try to seize the moment for broader jihadist aims remains a concern, even if direct connections to current events are not straightforward.
The attribution of the Brussels murders to ISIS is considered significant by security forces. It marks a notable, if cautious, acknowledgment of the organization’s intent to project reach into European territory, albeit without a consistent pattern of official claims since earlier years.
Authorities also point to the role of improvisation in terrorist planning. In recent days, a French decision to evacuate airports was driven by credible attack threats received by email, illustrating how insecurity can trigger rapid protective actions even when concrete plans are not fully specified. This path does not imply a return to a fixed ISIS or Al Qaeda strategy.
Enemies
Across interviews, commentators stress a clear distinction: Hamas is not ISIS or Al Qaeda. While some propagandists and even certain statements from the Israel Defense Forces have blurred lines by naming Hamas alongside ISIS, the Palestinian group pursues a national objective rather than a universal caliphate. A Police analyst explains that Hamas’s actions in the Gaza context do not align with historical attacks like those on Paris or Barcelona, underscoring the difference between national struggles and global Islamist extremism.
This distinction matters because it highlights the varied targets and motives of Islamist movements. ISIS and Al Qaeda pursue a global vision, often with Muslims as the principal victims, whereas Hamas fights within a regional frame. The landscape shows that differences persist not only in goals but in the alliances and conflicts that shape their actions.
Additional context comes from regional actors: Iran’s strategic interests and the sectarian dynamics shape how groups interact and compete. In past years, attempted incursions by Al Qaeda in Gaza met resistance from local actors, while ISIS’s footprint elsewhere evolved through cyber and real-world actions.
The broader cyber dimension remains a critical arena. When Hamas and Hezbollah joined forces, it was not on the ground everywhere but within digital networks. Analysts from a defense-oriented think tank describe how images, videos, and social media posts frame victims and martyrs, influencing perceptions and morale across large audiences.
A pivotal moment in the history of terrorism occurred on a November night years ago, when coordinated assaults stunned cities and prompted swift cross-border dialogue. In that period, if enemies reached out to express condolences, it illustrated how fluid alliances and humanitarian gestures can unfold even amid violence.