Mohamed bin Salman is not afraid to play both sides in pursuit of outcomes that strengthen his position. The crown prince of Saudi Arabia appears to prioritize winning above all else, which can make their stance toward the actors involved in Russia’s war in Ukraine seem contradictory. At times, public moves indicated a willingness to collaborate with multiple oil producers led by Russia, while at other moments a humanitarian gesture was announced in support of Ukraine. President Vladimir Putin praised OPEC+ decisions, whereas Ukraine’s leader emphasized the deepening ties with Saudi Arabia over the past three decades.
Earlier in the month, the expanding Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus partners, a coalition led by Saudi Arabia and including others aligned with Russia, announced a plan to cut oil production by two million barrels per day. This reduction, representing roughly 2 percent of global output, quickly drew a reaction from the Biden administration. The White House framed the move as an economic decision rather than a political one, suggesting it could complicate efforts with Russia at a time of ongoing conflict. A spokesperson for the administration underscored the seriousness of the decision and its potential implications on diplomacy and energy markets.
Commensurate with global reactions, the Kremlin’s spokesperson offered a different view, describing the cut as a stabilizing measure that countered what it saw as chaos caused by American policies. The official also noted a concerted effort by Saudi leadership to regain trust and steer decisions away from past tensions. In July, outreach to the kingdom was framed as an attempt to rebuild trust and align strategic interests amid a shifting regional landscape.
Calls with Zelensky
The evolving relationship between Washington and Riyadh creates space for competing influences, including Moscow’s approach to leverage the situation. Yet the Saudi stance remains nuanced rather than predictable, even as officials voted in solidarity with Ukraine in United Nations General Assembly resolutions. In these statements, Saudi Arabia condemned Russia’s aggression and demanded that hostilities cease, signaling a departure from outright support for any party to the conflict. More recently, Saudi positions urged other nations not to recognize certain territorial changes prompted by referendums, reflecting caution about territorial legitimacy and international response.
Two days later, a phone call took place between MBS and Zelensky. The Saudi crown prince signaled a continued willingness to facilitate mediation and to back efforts aimed at de-escalation. This mediator role has been credited with contributing to prisoner exchanges and other confidence-building steps, reinforcing a perception of constructive engagement with Kyiv even as energy market dynamics influenced the broader geopolitical climate. Zelensky spoke of significant gains in the relationship, describing them as among the most meaningful in decades, while acknowledging the tangible impact of energy developments on the war’s course and humanitarian aid commitments. The two leaders discussed ongoing cooperation and the potential for further support to aid de-escalation and humanitarian relief, while recognizing the strategic importance of stable energy markets in sustaining allied efforts in Ukraine.
Some observers raised questions about the accuracy of claims that the kingdom had aligned with Russia in its war with Ukraine. Officials have rejected such accusations as unfounded, emphasizing that Saudi policy has pursued a balance of interests and adherence to international norms. The discourse around Saudi decisions has continued to unfold against a backdrop of global energy concerns and security calculations, with leaders weighing domestic considerations against international commitments. As the season turns toward energy security and winter demand, the regional calculus remains complex, and Saudi leaders are portrayed as players who navigate a crowded field with pragmatism and strategic calculation.
In this broader context, the Saudi defense leadership has reiterated denials of any alliance with Russia regarding Ukraine. They have stressed that their actions are guided by national interests and the welfare of their people, while acknowledging the economic and geopolitical pressures that shape the region. The ongoing dialogue among Saudi, American, and Ukrainian authorities reflects a broader effort to maintain channels of communication, manage risk, and support a pathway toward de-escalation amidst an evolving and difficult conflict.