The core group of CaixaBank shareholders has grown in influence since the Bankia merger closed in March 2021. The combined stake of the State and the La Caixa Foundation—the latter actively pursuing a relaunch strategy to fund its social programs—has risen from 46.13% at that time to 49.24% at the end of the last year. It is also likely that the stake has surpassed 50% or is very close to that threshold in the coming months, thanks to share buybacks and cancellations conducted by the bank under the leadership of chairman Jose Ignacio Goirigolzalo in May. This occurs even though banking supervisors would prefer the public sector to reduce its ownership in Spain’s leading bank and for the foundation to trim its influence.
CaixaBank stands out as a distinctive case among Spain’s large banks. With two major shareholders holding substantial stakes, its ownership structure contrasts with Santander and BBVA, which have more dispersed ownership, and with Sabadell, another quoted institution in the sector. The concentration in CaixaBank’s capital has even spurred BBVA to launch a hostile bid, despite the target’s board rejection, while raising questions about whether the offer can attract enough stakeholders to cross the 50.01% threshold. Only Bankiter (controlled by Jaime Botín) and Unicaja (controlled by the Unicaja Foundation) have a similar profile to CaixaBank.
The rise in public ownership is not driven by increased investment from those parties. Since the Bankia merger, CaixaBank has bought back and cancelled about 688 million shares, representing 8.5% of the initial stock, in line with a sector-wide approach to rewarding shareholders indirectly. Reducing the number of shares in circulation boosts the book value of the remaining stock and supports the market price. The latest cancellation occurred on May 5, followed by an announcement on May 10 that more than 104.6 million shares had been bought back. When those repurchases are completed in the coming months, roughly 9.83% of the March 2021 shares will have disappeared.
Greater public weight
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The state could have sold a small portion of its stake to preserve its initial holding before the buybacks, but it chose not to. As a result, its share of the bank’s capital rose as the total number of shares shrank. The Fund for Ordered Banking Restructuring (FROB), part of the Ministry of Economy, increased its stake from 16.118% after the merger to 17.623% after the May 5 cancellation. If no further disposals occur, the stake would reach 17.877% when the bank completes the final tranche of shares it acquired. There is little incentive for the government to sell now: a larger stake means more dividend receipts, which have already totaled 998.7 million euros since 2021 and positively impact the public deficit.
Following talks between Bankia and CaixaBank in September 2020, the public stake has appreciated in the stock market by about 237% and gained about 4.674 billion euros, rising from 1.965 billion to 6.639 billion. Analysts still see upside for CaixaBank’s shares and expect profits to exceed 5.0 billion euros this year and approach that level in 2025 and 2026, leading many to advise buying or holding the stock. The FROB has recently hired STJ Advisors to help determine when and how to exit the bank, which could involve block sales or smaller market disposals. Although the government has set an end-2025 deadline to reduce exposure, it can extend the timeline at its discretion, providing flexibility to behavior in the market.
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Blocked reform
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The La Caixa Foundation, led by Isidre Fainé, did sell a modest number of shares last year. Its investing arm, Criteria, disposed of more than 24.5 million shares (0.32% of CaixaBank) for 99.819 million euros, registering a small loss on the accounting value held for its stake. Nevertheless, the combination of ongoing buybacks and cancellations eroded the impact of the sale, lifting its ownership from 30.01% in 2021 to 31.92% by the end of 2023. Unless further dispositions occur in the current year, the stake would rise to approximately 32.47% after the next cancellation and to about 32.94% with the following one, bringing its total with the State to around 50.1% and over 50.8% in the ensuing months.
This trajectory conflicts with the enforcement priorities of banking supervisors. The Bank of Spain remains wary of public ownership in the financial sector and even proposed a reform of the 2013 Savings Banks Act to reduce funder involvement in banks from 30% to 20%. It argued that a century after the law, it makes little sense for a major bank to be controlled by a foundation. Italy’s earlier reforms had already reduced foundation stakes in banks. Yet the proposal stalled due to political resistance, with surface-level explanations pointing to the influential role of the La Caixa Foundation in the government.