The President of CaixaBank, José Ignacio Goirigolzarri, expressed a measured note of optimism about the Spanish economy and, by extension, the Valencian economy, despite signals of a slowdown. This stance came during a luncheon discussion at the Forinvest financial services expo in Valencia, where he cited the unusual inflation spike and higher interest rates caused by recent global shocks as the backdrop for a rebound rather than a collapse. He pointed to the continuous upward revisions of GDP growth forecasts by various analytical institutes and government bodies as evidence of solid momentum, with each new estimate surpassing the last.
During the Q&A session, Goirigolzarri attributed the positive tone to good dynamics in the Valencian region. He recalled that Funcas, the Savings Banks Foundation, announced that the autonomous community had climbed back to its 2019 GDP level before the pandemic, and CaixaBank’s own research team projects nearly a 1.9% rise for the region, about six tenths above the national average. With improving job creation, robust exports, and consumption trending higher than the national average, Valencia, anchored in the capital of La Turia, showed heightened enthusiasm and a distinctive vigor despite broader challenges facing the Spanish economy. He also cautioned against overlooking two headwinds: persistent fiscal imbalances and low productivity, which, in his view, demand complex reforms amid the political cycle.
Asked whether financial conditions would tighten in the face of ongoing inflation, the CaixaBank chief offered a candid reply: he would like to know. Initially, the price surge was thought to be pandemic-driven rather than structural; yet core inflation signaled persistent resilience. The prevailing uncertainty centers on whether rates will hold at the current level or move higher, contingent on inflation control. Goirigolzarri suggested that European Central Bank rates remain in a high range, likely hovering around 3.5% to 3.75%, with potential to reach 4%. However, the 12-month Euribor indicates substantial market volatility, warranting cautious interpretation of forecasts. In his view, such levels are not unusually ambitious for the current cycle.
Speaking about the banking sector, Goirigolzarri described the changes since the last decade’s financial crisis as extraordinary. Banks now possess the capacity to finance families and businesses, a stark contrast to the past when such lending was nearly impossible. He lauded bank managers for their performance and noted that the ECB’s liquidity policies support financial activity. Yet he also highlighted three major challenges: accelerating digital transformation, maintaining bank reputation and profitability, and evolving customer behaviors. On the latter point, he observed that enterprises may be trading below book values, while affirming that banking remains profitable. He emphasized that this profitability benefits shareholders and, importantly, society at large.
Goirigolzarri also stressed that all CaixaBank shareholders understand the board’s decision, including the tax measure applied to the bank as part of its fiduciary duties to protect shareholder interests. He spoke at the Forinvest colloquium about the council’s choice, noting that the public fund FROB, which forms part of CaixaBank’s capital structure, is included in the discussion. He expressed confidence that shareholders would recognize the rationale behind the resolution and its alignment with long-term stewardship.