Everything unfolded as anticipated, yet Jair Bolsonaro’s public prayers did not reshape the course of events. The Supreme Electoral Court, holding a solid majority, moved toward disqualifying him from holding public office for eight years. The former president was found guilty of abusive power and publicly questioned the voting system’s transparency before the diplomatic community in a vote that stood four to one. Two additional ballots remained, but the outcome seemed unlikely to change.
The resonance of the votes carried immense weight. The far right had held sway for a moment, and questions arose about the seriousness of attacking democratic processes in front of international observers. Judge Floriano Marques echoed concerns about public rhetoric, noting that odd beliefs or fringe affiliations cannot guide public teachers, reminding colleagues that evidence matters when making serious claims. Marques supported the line drawn by the litigation reporter André Ramos. Tavares stressed that Bolsonaro advanced grave accusations without solid evidence, delivering them as invented details and distortions that tainted the discourse. Raul Araújo, a judge known for his close ties to certain faith circles, argued that Bolsonaro’s attempts to influence the diplomatic audience did not reach a level that would justify extraordinary measures of non-compliance.
Bolsonaro wandered between moments of despair and a plea for mercy, hoping for a late turn of events. Late on Thursday, he offered a prayer aiming to touch hearts, while reflecting on the presidency’s fiercest critic, Alexandre de Moraes, who has been a central obstacle to his path. The question hung in the air: if intervention had occurred, would the outcome have changed? Was it reasonable to meet about the electoral system as a remedy? The call for a fair trial persisted, and even at the margins, some observers warned that words alone would not overturn the verdicts already in motion.
A country divided in two
The October elections laid bare how deeply society was split around Bolsonaro. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won by a narrow margin, and the gap left his opponent humiliated rather than reconciled. A sizable portion of the electorate, roughly 37 percent, signaled allegiance to the former captain, a stance that political scientists view with concern as it hints at underlying tensions. Some voters express distrust toward the political process, while others insist on accountability through the ballot box rather than judicial action. The legacy of past investigations and political trials has fed a sense that legitimacy is fragile when institutions appear to react in ways that resemble political theater rather than deliberate governance.
Bolsonarism’s options
Facing uncertain political prospects, the far right may seek amnesty for its leader within Congress, alongside ongoing disqualification debates. The Liberal Party, which backed Bolsonaro last year, hopes to perform well in upcoming municipal elections. Yet sustaining momentum requires resilience after a difficult loss in the last round and a steady pace from party leaders who fear a renewed decline. The party’s leadership cautions that any renewed energy hinges on avoiding another demoralizing setback.
Meanwhile, commentary from major newspapers points to a circle close to Bolsonaro already weighing replacements for the 2026 general election. Names circulating include governors and senior figures from Paraná and São Paulo, with discussions touching on possible candidates who could carry the banner if Bolsonaro steps aside. Bolsonaro himself has floated the idea of his spouse potentially entering the race, keeping the option alive in the political conversation.
St. Paul’s Forum
In recent discussions surrounding Bolsonaro, Lula is often framed as the host of events tied to the São Paulo Forum, an ongoing gathering that brings together left-leaning forces in the region. There, leaders have praised historical figures associated with regional movements, illustrating the enduring cultural and ideological rifts that shape regional politics. The São Paulo Forum is frequently cited in Bolsonarism-related stories as a symbol of the enduring ideological exchange that fuels opposition and debate across the political spectrum.