This transfer follows a moderate path in the retail sector through the week. Black Friday, as Sunday closes, has stock levels at record highs according to the latest analyst estimates, but the pace is cooler than expected.
While industry voices point to hopeful consumption projections for the moment, several studies have tempered that optimism, drawing a picture closer to the current economic reality where many shoppers are tightening belts.
The Spanish Association of Shopping Centers and Parks, AECC, expects Black Friday to help consolidate the recovery in consumer spending. They note that the companies they represent hold optimistic expectations.
A survey of e-commerce professionals by IEBS Digital School shows that 57.1 percent anticipate finishing the year with more than a 20 percent increase in revenue, largely driven by these initial offers and discounts.
In contrast, a Boston Consulting Group study estimates the average spend per consumer will be about 13 percent lower than what could have reached 225 euros per person on the same date in 2021.
The study highlights that rising prices and fears of a recession are nudging customers to prioritize spending, cut nonessential purchases, and go out less often. About 45 percent of consumers say they check prices more often and 44 percent seek more affordable brands.
Likewise, Crédito y Caución predicts that spending in Spain will resemble last year’s Black Friday, but with a real decline in unit sales.
Another survey by the Association of Banks, Savings Banks and Insurance Companies, Adicae, shows that 40 percent of consumers expect to spend less this year than on Black Friday in 2021, while 81 percent believe there are many deals this year. Yet there is a sense that some offers may be misleading as the days unfold.
Watch out for offers
The blitz of advertising drives real and virtual storefronts to display discounted prices, but consumer watchdogs warn that discounts vary by item. Discounted products should show the former price or the discount percentage alongside the sale price, ensuring transparency for buyers.
Adicae cites examples of price movements such as laptops rising from 899 euros to 1,199 euros on November 17, audio equipment moving from 825 euros to 1,299 euros, and induction hobs climbing from 379 euros to 499 euros.
Overstock concerns
Supply chain pressures have pushed many retailers to reorder stock and bolster guarantees, with inventories reaching record levels in some cases. The main worry for many is overstocking, prompting aggressive reductions that can compress margins.
Those steeper discounts translate into higher storage costs, thinner profit margins, and elevated credit risk for some sellers.
Nevertheless, a Webloyalty analysis of spending on remote devices suggests online shopping will keep rising for another year. The data shows that a majority of buyers, around 61 percent, are already embracing omnichannel strategies as retailers strive to let customers touch and test products before buying to strengthen their revenue statements.