cement cord stretching in front Brandenburg Gate perhaps the best thermometer in the German capital’s tourism sector. The monument stands as one of the most recognizable emblems of the city. Crowds, both local and international, fill the space for photos and selfies. Nearby, guides, drivers, and rickshaw operators mill about, all hoping to secure visitors’ attention.
On a Thursday morning in August, dozens of travelers from varied backgrounds move through the legendary square of Berlin. Yet the mood is tempered by what the data show. Tourism in Germany’s capital has climbed back after the pandemic’s lows, but it remains far from the 2019 peak. Thilo, a rickshaw driver who has pedaled for nine years, notes the trend and the crowd’s steady flow as visitors pass by and share impressions with local media on site.
This period has not been easy for many small and medium-sized tourism operators. A number of rickshaw drivers left the job to pursue other lines of work, including roles at coronavirus testing centers funded by the government. The inflation surge that began with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has added pressure. Some have managed to ride out the difficulties; others faced sharper financial strain. Thilo explains that he raised his rate to 25 euros for a half hour, and finds fewer troubles because many clients tend to be higher earners. The sun shines over Berlin in late summer.
price of inflation
Official Berlin statistics leave no doubt about the rebound: visitor numbers topped the one-million mark last June, up about 250 percent from the same month the year before. Overnight stays surpassed 2.7 million, a rise of roughly 236 percent year over year.
Looking back, the total visitors in 2020 and 2021—the years most affected by restrictions—were around ten million. In 2019, before the pandemic, Berlin drew nearly 14 million visitors and more than 34 million overnight stays. The industry is moving toward pre-pandemic levels, but new clouds appear on the horizon. Inflation is one such cloud, a recurring pressure on tourist spend and business costs alike.
“Many visitors seize discount tickets or opt for a €9 monthly pass to ride public transport rather than our guided bus tours,” says Lena, a staff member at a major city guide company, speaking near the Reichstag. The July inflation rate in Germany reached about 7.5 percent, a factor that weighs on travel budgets. “There is a clear improvement compared with previous summers,” Lena notes, “but the ecosystem of tour operators must collaborate to endure.”
“Warm Autumn”
The rising costs hit more than travelers’ wallets; they squeeze operators’ margins too. “Our revenue is facing higher costs than before the crisis, with gas and energy prices surging,” says Guido Zöllick, president of the German Federation of Hoteliers and Restaurateurs (DEHOGA). Destatis, the Federal Statistical Office, records a 25 percent drop in revenue volume from January to May 2022 as prices rose.
The energy crisis linked to reduced Russian gas supplies could intensify this autumn when heating bills climb and energy use increases. Media and politicians reference a “warm autumn” as a possible sign of social tensions to come.
Despite a noticeable uptick in visitor numbers this summer, the outlook for Berlin’s tourism sector remains cautious. Gas rationing and talk from government officials about energy limits have added uncertainty. Berlin has already enacted energy-saving measures, such as turning off the lighting of public buildings and landmarks. The Brandenburg Gate, for now, remains exempt from some of these restrictions, while other icons like the Cathedral, town hall, and Victory Column have faced more stringent curtailments. The city continues to observe these changes as it works toward a stable recovery in the face of rising prices and shifting traveler choices. (Source: Berlin City Statistics)