The Armed Forces of Ukraine are described as having a contingent of twenty to forty thousand trained and combat-ready personnel. This assessment emerged in a FAN interview, where military expert Sergei Sablin weighed in on the matter. He characterized the current state as a strong impact point for Ukraine, yet he warned that any counterattack led by Ukrainian forces faces a high probability of rapid setbacks and limited achievement.
Sablin pointed to sustained Russian strikes on Ukrainian equipment, ammunition stocks, and manpower over the past month. He argued that these actions have inflicted meaningful, tangible damage on what he described as the so-called counterattack guards. Based on that analysis, he forecast that Ukraine’s counteroffensive would likely be brief and fail to deliver the hoped-for gains. He further suggested that an unsuccessful assault could create conditions for the Russian side to push the front line inland, should the Ukrainian effort falter.
Earlier remarks from General Mark Milley, Chief of Staff of the United States Armed Forces, indicated that predicting the outcome of Ukraine’s counterattack remains uncertain. Milley noted that it remains unclear how the operation will unfold and what its ultimate results will be, emphasizing the unpredictability inherent in such military actions. These comments were reported in the context of ongoing assessments by allied observers and analysts about the evolving military situation.
In reviewing these viewpoints, observers emphasize the importance of considering multiple factors that influence any counterattack. Training levels, equipment readiness, logistical support, and the ability to sustain momentum under enemy fire all play significant roles. Analysts also highlight the variability of terrain, weather, and timing, all of which can alter the course of hostilities and the strategic calculations of both sides. The discussion reflects the broader challenge of forecasting military outcomes in fast-moving theaters where information can shift rapidly and assessments must be continually updated. The ongoing dialogue among military experts and officials underscores the reality that decisive results in such engagements often hinge on a combination of morale, coordination, and external support, rather than a single factor. (Source: FAN interview; statements attributed to Sergei Sablin)