As the war in Ukraine intensified, European nations began to procure weapons at a faster pace. A leading analyst from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Pieter Wezeman, noted in the institute’s latest findings that shipments from Russia surged, while Russia itself became a major exporter after Western countries curtailed some of their own deliveries for security and fiscal reasons. SIPRI’s work is widely regarded as a reliable barometer of global arms dynamics, and its conclusions reflect a series of shifts that were already taking shape before the invasion on February 24, 2022. Countries viewing regional threats began to boost their armament levels in response to perceived risks.
In its broad global analysis, SIPRI outlines a five-year window from 2018 to 2022, but for Ukraine the focus sharpens on the recent period. Ukraine rose from the fourth position among importing countries in 2022 to the third place in the most recent analysis, trailing only the United States and India. These movements illustrate how geopolitics can quickly reshape demand for defense capabilities and affect international trade in arms. SIPRI highlights the central role of security perceptions in driving purchases, particularly in regions facing heightened tensions.
European purchases doubled
Across the world, the arms trade contracted by about 5 percent over the past five years, yet Europe experienced a notable uptick in arms imports during that same span. The increase reached roughly 47 percent in the European market, with NATO members and the European Union playing key roles in sourcing weapons. SIPRI attributes much of this growth to renewed concerns about regional security, especially in relation to Russia, and to a broader pattern of increased military readiness among European states. These dynamics have positioned the EU, NATO, and allied partners as major suppliers of weapons to Ukraine, aimed at countering the Kremlin’s military actions.
During this period, the United States maintained a dominant export position, accounting for around 40 percent of global arms sales. Russia remained a significant supplier, though its share stood at about 16 percent. Other notable contributors included France, China, and Germany, with shares of roughly 11 percent, 5.2 percent, and 4.2 percent respectively. Spain followed closely in sixth place with about 2.6 percent. This distribution underscores the enduring leadership of the United States in the arms market, even as gaps between major producers and exporters have shifted over time.
The relative performance of the leading producer blocs is telling: the United States and Russia have long occupied the top two spots, yet the gap between them has widened. France has begun to close the distance, suggesting a reconfiguration of supply capabilities among major exporters. In the five-year window, the United States exported more than 14 percent above its earlier level, while Russia reduced its outward shipments by about 31 percent as domestic needs rose and sanctions constrained international trade. Other buyers, including China and Egypt, emerged as important markets for arms imports in this period.
Risks in Asia
SIPRI projects that Russia’s export pattern will remain constrained in the coming years, largely due to the country prioritizing its own armed forces and to Western sanctions that dampen international demand for Russian equipment. This shift in export strategy reflects a broader set of dynamics affecting regional security in Asia. The analysis identifies that, beyond Europe and Ukraine, buyer nations in Asia face a complex mix of opportunities and constraints as defense procurement continues to adapt to evolving threats.
Within Asia-Pacific, India stands out as a leading importer, but several other major buyers in the region—South Korea, Japan and others—have pursued higher defense acquisitions. The United States remains the primary supplier driving these trends. The report highlights a rising perception of future threats, as both China and North Korea feature prominently in strategic forecasts, influencing regional arms flows and the pace of modernization.