Global health experts at the World Health Organization and physicians from many countries warn that by the middle of this century infections caused by bacteria resistant to antibiotics could claim more than 39 million lives. The warning emerges from a rigorous analysis published in the Lancet, drawing on a synthesis of global surveillance data and modeling.
Death toll from these resistant infections is projected to nearly double by 2050 compared with today’s levels, unless decisive actions shift the trajectory. Experts say this rise will reflect not only the stubborn spread of resistance but also gaps in antibiotic stewardship, uneven access to rapid diagnostics, and a shrinking pipeline of effective drugs. Even in high-income regions, hospital outbreaks and community transmission threaten to overwhelm health systems with needless suffering.
Although progress has been made against drug resistant microorganisms, experts say it is not enough to reverse the trend. There is an urgent need to develop new strategies and tools to prevent infections and avert the feared outcome. A senior researcher at a major university stressed that broad, sustained action across prevention, rapid diagnostics, treatment, and strengthening health systems is essential.
Researchers examined data on the spread of resistant bacteria compiled by the World Health Organization and partners from 204 United Nations member states, spanning 1990 through 2021. They used this dataset to model how outbreaks might change under current control measures and new interventions. Ongoing surveillance through recent years continues to refine these projections as new tools and policies roll out in different regions.
The analysis projects that the annual deaths caused by resistant infections could reach about 8.2 million by the middle of the century, while unaddressed infections might total roughly 39 million deaths over the following quarter-century. The figures highlight the scale of potential loss and the urgent need for improved treatment access, infection prevention, and robust public health response.
Earlier reporting has noted instances where antibiotic-resistant bacteria were found in wounded military personnel in conflict zones, illustrating how resistance threats intersect with crisis care. Some analyses from Russia have warned that the antibiotic era could be nearing its end, prompting calls for renewed investment in research, better stewardship, and global collaboration.