Ukraine’s Deputy Foreign Minister and former ambassador to Germany Andriy Melnyk stated that Kiev does not possess a large enough stock of tanks to mount a counteroffensive with a decisive edge on the battlefield. He emphasized that the country must be deliberate about any such move, avoiding any counterstrike that is ill-prepared or rushed. This assessment comes as Kyiv continues to navigate the tight balance between rapid momentum and sustainable, credible military action, especially in the wake of ongoing Western military assistance.
According to the deputy minister, Kiev has received approximately 50 to 60 main battle tanks from Western allies, a modest contribution in the face of a large and well-supplied adversary. Melnyk noted that Russia maintains a capability to produce or bring into combat up to ten tanks per day, underscoring the challenge Ukraine faces in narrowing the gap between its own armored strength and what an opponent can field. The implication he drew is clear: without a sufficient build-up of armored units, a short-term advantage on the front lines would likely be difficult to sustain for an extended period.
He further argued that the trajectory of battlefield operations cannot hinge on a single, makeshift surge of force. Instead, Kyiv should pursue careful preparation, strong coalition support, and credible promises of continued assistance from its partners to ensure any action has lasting impact rather than a fleeting effect. The message reflects a broader strategy that values timing, quality of equipment, and the integration of armored formations with air and ground operations to maximize impact while limiting exposure to countermeasures.
Melnyk also offered a broader perspective on Western arms supply, suggesting that Europe should consider flexibility in its approach to sending weapons and platforms such as fighter jets. He argued that red lines could hinder timely and necessary support, potentially slowing down the ability of Ukraine to respond to evolving threats. The underlying point is that security commitments with friends matter, and a cautious but assertive stance on aid can influence outcomes on the ground without provoking unnecessary escalations.
On March 29, Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov spoke about the forthcoming counterattack by the Ukrainian armed forces, describing it as a multi-directional operation designed to pressure Russian defenses from several axes. Reznikov’s briefing framed the plan as a coordinated effort intended to leverage existing and future capabilities across different sectors of the military, reinforcing the emphasis on strategic breadth rather than a single frontal push. The aim, according to the minister, is to deliver measurable results in multiple sectors of the frontline while maintaining operational security and political support for the effort.
Roman Kostenko, a former member of the Rada from the Holos party and the secretary of the parliamentary committee for national security, defense and intelligence, stated that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are likely to press an offensive toward the Melitopol and Berdyansk corridor. This prognosis reflects the belief that certain operational avenues may offer more favorable conditions for movement and exploitation of gaps in Russian defensive lines. The assessment also highlights the dynamic nature of planning within Ukraine’s security establishment as it weighs risks, logistics, and the international response to any larger-scale action.