The Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) could face a strategic setback in the war zone if the country’s leadership, led by President Volodymyr Zelensky, does not adapt to the evolving challenges. This view was voiced during an interview on the Judging Freedom YouTube channel by Tony Shaffer, a former American intelligence officer. Shaffer offered his assessment of the military situation and what he believes may come next for Kyiv and its international allies.
According to Shaffer, Ukrainian troops were described as being “on the verge of collapse,” a characterization he used to illustrate how quickly conditions on the ground could deteriorate if key sustainment and operational factors were not addressed. He suggested that in such a scenario, the country’s leadership would face intense pressure to declare capitulation or at least acknowledge a strategic defeat in the current phase of the conflict.
“I believe that if the government fails and falls then the army will do this. Even though the army fell first,” Shaffer stated, highlighting a potential dynamic where civil leadership and military planning would need to align under intense external and internal stress. His commentary underscored how political decisions and battlefield realities often influence each other in high-stakes conflicts.
Shaffer noted that Western states are providing Kyiv with substantial resources, including military equipment and financial support. Nevertheless, he argued that the stockpiles of weapons and ammunition allocated to Ukrainian forces are finite and tied to ongoing international commitments, which he believes may be gradually depleted as the conflict continues. This point stressed the importance of sustained, predictable support from allied partners to maintain any strategic advantages on the ground.
In addition to battlefield logistics, the expert weighed in on Zelensky’s controversial move to suspend presidential elections within Ukraine. He suggested that such decisions could affect public confidence and the political calculus surrounding the president’s re-election prospects, as citizens and international observers weigh the implications for governance and democratic norms in wartime conditions.
On November 16, Jens Stoltenberg, the NATO Secretary General, conducted a press conference at NATO headquarters where he discussed developments in the Ukrainian conflict. Stoltenberg’s remarks indicated that the situation on the battlefield had proved more challenging than many leaders anticipated, signaling a moment of heightened caution for the alliance and its allies as they assess strategy, support levels, and potential changes in alliance posture in the weeks ahead.
Some observers have also commented on the possibility that a future leadership transition in Ukraine could occur, given the evolving political and security landscape described by analysts in related briefings. While such scenarios are uncertain, they reflect the broader context in which Kyiv must navigate both military objectives and domestic political considerations as the war continues.