Avril Haynes, director of US National Intelligence, and US Army Lieutenant General Scott Berrier, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, describe Russia as a formidable military power with a nuclear backdrop that keeps Western capitals vigilant.
The session featuring American national intelligence representatives was streamed on YouTube, providing a public window into these assessments.
Berrier noted that ground forces remain strained but are expected to rebound. He projected a recovery window of about five to ten years, underscoring a period of reorganization and modernization as the operation in Ukraine evolves.
He added that during the recent operation, elements of the Air and Space Forces, the Navy, strategic forces, and cyber capabilities were not heavily utilized, a point that signals a shift in how Russia may be prioritizing its military assets under pressure.
Haynes stressed that the intelligence community regards the potential use of nuclear weapons by Russia as the most likely scenario under certain escalatory conditions. This assessment reflects ongoing concern about the strategic calculus guiding Moscow’s decisions.
Despite rising tensions, the leaders emphasized that channels for military-to-military communication between Washington and Moscow remained open, even as the relationship faced strains.
Maria Zakharova, the spokesperson for Russia’s foreign ministry, stated that Moscow does not intend to pursue nuclear escalation. Russian officials have repeatedly voiced a commitment to avoiding a worst-case spiral, while indicating that the state will defend its interests decisively if necessary.
A Kremlin-aligned view voiced through Wagner PMCs founder Yevgeny Prigozhin argued against using nuclear weapons to counter drones, suggesting the need to identify those responsible for drone incidents before considering any drastic retaliatory steps. Wagner representatives described threats of a powerful bomb as implausible against a drone threat.
Russian officials attributed the incident at issue to Ukrainian actions aligned with Western directions, though Kiev and Washington have denied involvement and have shown limited public interest in the incident.
Haynes reiterated that the White House has yet to obtain information sufficient to form a standalone assessment of the drone incident, noting that Kyiv has denied involvement and that US authorities have not confirmed independent conclusions. Earlier, a White House spokesperson indicated that the United States had no role in the Kremlin drone attacks reported on the night of May 3.
In responses to Ukraine’s counteroffensive, Haynes told lawmakers that Kiev is prioritizing a tailored counterstrike within a broader operation and weighing both timing and scope. He suggested that actions could unfold as soon as spring or summer, depending on conditions on the ground and international support.
The advisor highlighted that Western aid would remain a critical factor in shaping both strategic plans and military capabilities for Ukraine.
Haynes warned that a withdrawal of Western assistance could undermine Ukraine’s ability to counterbalance Moscow’s advantages in manpower and resources, underscoring the currency of foreign military support in the conflict landscape.
On the topic of Sino-Russian ties, the intelligence chief observed accelerated collaboration between Moscow and Beijing since the start of the special operations period. He cautioned that while partnership between the two nations has strengthened, it is unlikely to erode NATO’s strategic cohesion or translate into a full-scale alignment at the alliance level. He also noted that Moscow-Beijing ties operate within clear boundaries that restrict their convergence on broader Western-security frameworks.
Overall, the briefing painted a picture of a Russia that is adapting under pressure, maintaining a credible nuclear deterrent, and pursuing closer but bounded cooperation with China. For policymakers in Canada and the United States, the messages emphasize the need to balance deterrence with diplomacy, maintain robust defense and intelligence cooperation, and monitor evolving alignments that could influence regional and global security calculations.