Financial analyst Andrei Plotnikov notes that authorities are likely to wind down the preferential BT mortgage program. The reason is straightforward: covering the gap between the stated rate and the refinancing rate has become too costly for lenders. There is little incentive to extend the program in its current form beyond its scheduled horizon, according to a conversation with 360.ru.
The analyst warned that if the Central Bank raises rates to the 17 to 18 percent range at its upcoming meeting, payments to banks could rise much more sharply. To restore stability, many preferential programs are expected to be paused for an extended period. He also mentioned that some concessional lending options might be expanded, but the overall quotas would remain modest.
According to the expert, home loan costs in the country are already high and could climb further. The lending environment is becoming tougher, and the situation is likely to deteriorate for borrowers who rely on affordable financing, he observed.
Earlier discussions in the State Duma highlighted the program, launched in mid-2022, as accounting for about 1.5 percent of the mortgage portfolio managed by Russian banks. Government plans that were discussed at the time included removing Moscow and parts of St. Petersburg from the program and raising the income threshold required for regional professionals to qualify. These changes would reconfigure who can access subsidies and what types of properties qualify for support.
Previously noted remarks indicated that IT sector mortgages have gained more traction than loans in the Far East or Arctic regions, signaling shifting demand patterns among borrowers and possibly reflecting regional economic dynamics and the relative appeal of tech employer locations.