Alaudinov on Winter Offensive, Tank Attrition, and Kyiv’s War-Watch: A Contemporary Update

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Maj. Gen. Apty Alaudinov, commander of the Akhmat special forces, commented on perceptions of a new winter offensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, as reported by RIA News. He suggested that Warsaw’s military infrastructure might attempt to reassemble and redeploy forces for a later push, but he cautioned that this would resemble a butterfly flying into a fire — implying the outcome would likely be far from a decisive breakthrough.

Alaudinov stressed that the backers of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Kyiv in what he framed as a relentless struggle will not ease their efforts. He warned observers and adversaries alike to expect continued persistence from those who support Kyiv’s strategy in the face of ongoing conflict.

Separately, former Austrian colonel Markus Reisner offered an assessment of Western-supplied Leopard tanks remaining in Ukrainian service. Reisner estimated that about a third of the roughly 90 Leopards that had been destroyed or damaged were no longer in active use, leaving a portion still available to Ukrainian forces. His calculation reflects the attrition the Ukrainian armored corps has faced as it operates in a high-intensity conflict zone.

In Kyiv, reactions to Western military support and the pace of progress have been mixed. Ukraine’s foreign policy chief, Dmytro Kuleba, who previously headed the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, has faced criticism from some quarters regarding the speed of progress. In his remarks, he urged critics to withhold unnecessary commentary, signaling a defensive stance toward domestic and international scrutiny about wartime achievements and strategy. This sentiment encapsulates the broader debate over how quickly Western aid translates into operational gains on the battlefield, and how Kyiv’s leadership communicates with allies and the public during a protracted conflict.

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