According to the latest update of the real-time forecast model MIPred for Spain, AIReF indicates a negative adjustment of activity, placing the fourth quarter of 2019 slightly lower than pre-pandemic levels. This finding underscores how the model interprets short-term movements in domestic demand and industrial activity as signals of temporary softness ahead of the recovery path. The revision reflects a careful read of incoming data and the model’s sensitivity to quarterly revisions, with the underlying impulse coming from sectoral indicators that predate the pandemic but have continued to influence quarterly results.
In this new MIPred update, AIReF introduces a fresh indicator: total imports of goods for June. At present, this indicator is only 57.1% complete for July and lacks data for August and September. The organization notes that the indicator will be updated as new information becomes available, ensuring the series remains as current as possible for ongoing assessment. This partial data situation highlights the model’s reliance on high-frequency imports to gauge domestic demand and supply chain conditions, while reflecting the inherent latency in import statistics.
Looking ahead, the report confirms that the model will be updated again in the coming weeks as more indicators are released. Key metrics slated for inclusion in the near term include electricity consumption, the monthly average of employees registered with Social Security, the PMI Services Index, and total sales of large firms. These data points are expected to be published at the start of September, with July data included in the latest update for the sales indicator.
Across its projections, AIReF maintains a path of growth for the year. The forecast envisions a 4.2% expansion for the Spanish economy in the current cycle, with inflation projected to average 7.8% for the year. This latest inflation estimate is marginally lower than the previous forecast, which had anticipated 7.9% in the April update, signaling a modest softening in price pressures alongside the growth outlook. The revised inflation path reflects evolving prices for energy, services, and core goods as supply constraints ease and demand remains cautiously positive. (AIReF)
Taken together, the updates emphasize AIReF’s cumulative view that real activity will gradually regain momentum as new data confirm stabilizing trends across consumption, investment, and external demand. While the June import figure remains partial, the forthcoming data releases are expected to clarify the strength of domestic demand and the pace of the recovery. The forecast also illustrates how headline inflation interacts with growth in the short run, and how the balance between demand and supply determines the trajectory of the economy in the months ahead. (AIReF)
Overall, AIReF’s MIPred framework continues to fuse timely indicators with structural considerations to produce a rolling assessment of Spain’s GDP dynamics. The model’s adaptability to new data, including the introduction of June imports and upcoming monthly statistics, reinforces its role as a real-time tool to monitor economic health and guide policy and business planning. The ongoing update cycle ensures buyers, policymakers, and analysts receive the freshest signals about the evolving outlook, with the caveat that data latency can temper early readings. (AIReF)