Air conditioning has a double-edged effect on climate and public health. In regions such as Europe, these cooling units are commonly used to reduce heat during increasingly frequent heat waves. They help prevent heat-related illnesses and deaths, yet their long term impact on global warming cannot be ignored. If used without restraint, the rise in cooling demand could hamper climate mitigation efforts and may contribute to higher emissions by 2050 in Europe.
The discussion is grounded in a recent study published in Scientific Reports, a journal within the Nature family, with researchers from Ca’ Foscari University of Venice and institutions in the United States. The study is considered world leading for analyzing how climate change will influence air conditioning use and electricity demand when cooling is the primary goal.
The researchers examined Europe and India, both subjected to severe heatwaves as temperatures rise globally. The analysis notes that much of the cooling capacity still relies on electricity produced from fossil fuels, highlighting a tension: comfort and safety through cooling versus the carbon footprint of power generation. Some findings suggest that cooling strategies could inadvertently heighten emissions if the energy mix remains fossil-fueled.
The study projects that Europe will see an increase in carbon dioxide emissions by roughly 10 million tons between this year and 2050. In India, the rise could be substantially larger, reaching about 120 million tons over the same horizon.
The use of air conditioners is expected to rise quickly in Europe
People in relatively rich European countries such as Spain, Greece, and Italy may face higher electricity demand as cooling becomes essential. The same trend is anticipated in India, where rapid population growth and rising incomes amplify demand. By 2050, with global temperatures potentially up by two to three degrees Celsius, cooling consumption could double in Europe and quadruple in India, potentially supplying roughly 40 percent of the population in both regions.
Cooling offers clear benefits, reducing exposure to extreme heat and improving quality of life. By 2050, it is projected to lower average heat exposure by about 40 percent in Europe and 35 percent in India. Yet the increased electricity demand will push up power generation needs, translating into higher CO2 emissions in the range of 7 to 17 million tons in Europe and 38 to 160 million tons in India annually.
As Enrica De Cian, an environmental economist at Ca’ Foscari and co-author of the study, notes, electricity used for cooling often comes from fossil fuels, making the cooling strategy a potential complication for climate goals.
Francesco Colelli adds that in Spain and Italy choosing cooling as an adaptation measure may raise maximum electricity consumption even in mild climate years. The model also suggests electricity prices could rise, and more cooling capacity may be required to meet growing demand. In Spain, maximum annual demand could climb by about 10 gigawatts under the least favorable climate projection.
The study concludes that to curb the projected carbon increase, two paths stand out: improve the energy efficiency of air conditioners and accelerate the transition to cleaner power generation. These changes are essential to offset the growing energy needs of cooling as temperatures rise.
Reference work: Nature article linked in the study references.