Weeks ago, Spain’s government leader, Pedro Sánchez, claimed that the economy is booming, and the tourism sector appears to be the brightest proof. Aena, the airport operator, has since raised its outlook for traffic growth across Spain’s airport network to 8.3% above 2023 levels, up from a prior central scenario of 3.8% and a high scenario of 7.1% [Aena forecast revision, 2024].
At the start of the year, the operator set a goal of 288 million passengers. By March, that figure was nudged to 294 million within its 2022-2026 strategic plan, and this week it was increased again to 306.7 million passengers. The revision reflects a stronger than expected start to the year for air travel in Spain and a resilient tourism demand that has kept loading factors high this season [Aena strategic plan updates, 2024].
Company officials explained in a press release that the traffic momentum has been better than anticipated in the early months of the year thanks to robust and steady demand from tourists. In the first five months of 2024, passenger numbers across Spanish airports rose by 11.4% compared with the same period in 2023, underscoring the resilience of inbound and domestic travel and the continued appeal of Spain as a travel destination [Aena performance report, 2024].
But that is not the full story. In the coming months, the airport group expects a high level of scheduled seats offered by airlines, which further supports the upward revisions. Airlines have scheduled 240 million seats for the summer, about 13.5% more than the same period in 2023, according to data from the Airlines Association (ALA) [ALA report, 2024].
Beyond these two endogenous sector drivers, Aena also notes an improved economic outlook for Spain. The International Monetary Fund lifted its growth forecast to 1.9% in its April outlook, up from 1.5% projected in January, and it highlights sustained demand from major source markets such as the United Kingdom, France, and Germany [IMF update, 2024].
The operator says, for the moment, that these factors are not guaranteed to translate automatically into the remainder of the 2022-2026 plan. The roadmap still envisions 298 million passengers for this year, with expectations of exceeding 300 million in 2025 and hovering around 310 million in 2026. Last year, the network served 283 million passengers, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 record and far exceeding early plans, which anticipated slower growth [Aena annual results, 2023].