China’s population is already moving into a period of red numbers, with the dynamics shifting for years to come. India has emerged as the leading demographic power, and there is little sign of an end to the downturn that has left the country economically fragile. The shrinking workforce and tensions within the pension system are clear headwinds. If one imagines the Chinese people as a uniform bloc moving only at the government’s behest, a more nuanced view emerges, revealing a society shaped by urgent hopes and quiet strains rather than mere obedience.
For years, China has feared a renewed decline after these trends. The memory of famine during the Great Leap Forward remains a stark reminder of vulnerabilities. Last year’s figures pointed to significant population losses, and this year the negative balance deepened further. Birth rates also fell sharply, with one year seeing 6.77 births per thousand people dropping to 6.39, the lowest since the founding of the People’s Republic in 1949. In 2023, births stood at about 9.02 million, down from 9.56 million the year before.
Deaths rose noticeably, a sign that the country faced mounting health and demographic pressures. The reported totals around 700,000 deaths in a single year align with broader expectations that the pandemic year left a lasting imprint. This is supported by independent estimates that suggest higher mortality than official tallies indicate, reinforcing claims that policy responses significantly affected the death toll. In the United States, mortality rose sharply during the same period, underscoring how demographic shocks can ripple across nearby regions and economies.
Wasted efforts
Beijing has struggled to stimulate births. The end of the one-child policy in 2015 marked the largest demographic experiments in history, first loosening and then expanding family limits. A hoped-for baby boom followed briefly by a continued decline has prompted a wide range of measures, from housing subsidies and tax breaks to extended maternity leave. National rhetoric has urged citizens to participate in a broader rejuvenation of the nation, with officials signaling the urgency of women reclaiming roles in the home and family life.
Young people in China increasingly marry later or have fewer children, clashing with traditional Confucian expectations. The causes mirror broader Western trends: high living costs, valued leisure time, and economic uncertainty. The post-Covid recovery has been slow, and youth unemployment rose enough to lead the government to reduce the visibility of unemployment data. The broader economy is closely tied to these demographic shifts, influencing growth projections and social policy alike.
China shares many growth-and-aging patterns seen in other developed economies. Japan shows a birth rate around 6.3 per thousand, and South Korea around 4.9, while China faces a more rapid aging trajectory. World Bank data indicate that by 2021 roughly 14% of China’s population was over 65, a threshold that signals an aging country. Projections suggest that within a little more than a decade the country could reach a point where 20% of its population is aged 65 or older, a marker of a profoundly aging society.
A fading miracle
The era of abundant and inexpensive labor fueling a vast manufacturing surge is fading. The working-age population, defined here as those aged 16 to 59, declined substantially in the last year. Projections for 2035 show a surge in retirees that would exceed 400 million, a figure larger than the entire population of several large countries. The Academy of Social Sciences notes that this shift will put immense pressure on the retirement system and social welfare programs.
This year’s events already hint at the magnitude of the future challenge. With a slower economy and tighter finances, some seniors are reducing their contributions to health insurance schemes, prompting local governments to explore ways to leverage what is sometimes called a silver economy. Across China, policymakers face a complex mix of internal and external pressures, and demographics remain the most urgent and intricate issue on the table for national planning and economic strategy. In the end, demographic trends will shape a wide range of policy choices and outcomes for the coming decades.