Current policies and measures implemented to reduce emissions are “insufficient” to achieve net zero emissions targets by 2050. As reported in a report by VINCI Energies Spain, a company dedicated to proposing solutions for digital transformation and energy transition.
Through its report ‘Global Energy, Energy and Geopolitics: Trends and Uncertainties’, the organization, in collaboration with EsadeGeo, argues that the failure to achieve net zero CO2 emissions gap Between 23 and 27 gigatons, depending on what needs to be implemented by 2050.
The starting point of the analysis is world population projectionsThe number of people estimated to exceed 10 billion people in 2060 and its direct consequences on the world energy demand. Right now China and India are at the top of the list of CO2 emission increases, with a 350% increase compared to 1990According to the report.
Due to the increase in population, a Increase in investment interest in renewable energyWith solutions like hydrogen gaining traction and increasing its demand forecast to 115 million tonnes in 2030, as the International Energy Agency notes.
However, as stated in the report, the measures implemented are still “not sufficient” and world powers are focused on two main strategies.
The first one consists of Energy adaptation away from fossil fuels This gives new importance to countries with high levels of critical materials, and the second is based on the promotion of different approaches in industrial policies to encourage the development of the sector at the national level.
Green industrial policy
The report states: The energy sector accounts for 73.2% of global greenhouse gas emissions and 80% of energy consumption comes from fossil fuelsThat’s why “governments must start moving away from non-renewable fuels.”
He also points out that the effort towards this change requires new resources. Creating clean energy infrastructurefor this so called ‘critical materials‘ special minerals, such as lithium or copper.
According to the Explained Policy Scenario (STEPS) lDemand for mineral resources will double by 2040The Net Zero Emissions (NZE) scenario quadruples and sixfolds this by 2050.
According to the report, this means a great advantage for countries with these resources. This is the case for Australia, Chile and especially China, which have quotas of around 50% and up to 80% in rare minerals.
Therefore, attention is now Reactivate industrial policyWith the United States, China and the European Union at the forefront of this new initiative, it relies on generous subsidies to companies and consumers in key technology sectors. green industrial policy. However, they emphasize that China leads the green technology market in many respects.
Reference report: https://www.vinci-energies.es/app/uploads/sites/49/2024/02/Global-Economy-Energy-and-Geopolitics_Report.pdf
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