Situation in the region
The Houthis have recently carried out 27 attacks on commercial ships from more than 50 countries. The final straw that broke the US’s patience was the attack by the Yemeni rebel movement Ansar Allah (Houthis) on a US Navy ship on January 9, 2024.
Currently, an aircraft carrier strike group (ACG) of the American Navy is deployed in the Gulf of Aden as part of the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower. (CVN-69)guided missile destroyer USS Carney (DDG-64, 90 UVP type Mk41, vertical launch devices for missiles of various classes)USS Laboon (DDG-58) and USS Thomas Hudner (DDG-116)In addition to the Ohio-class nuclear submarine (USS Florida, SSGN-728, can carry 124 Tomahawk cruise missiles) and the Los Angeles-class attack submarine (name of the ship has not been determined yet). AUG’s actions are supported by various support ships.
There is also a US Navy carrier strike group in the Eastern Mediterranean, consisting of the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier and five escort ships, as well as the USS Mount Whitney headquarters ship, where all forces and assets in the region are concentrated. controlled and interacted. Vice Admiral Thomas Ishee, commander of the US Navy’s 6th Fleet, is also based at Mount Whitney.
Finally the destroyer HMS Diamond was placed in the Red Sea (D34) Multipurpose frigate Languedoc of the Royal Navy of Great Britain and the French Navy (D653).
According to the joint statement issued by the White House from the governments of Australia, Bahrain, Canada, Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, New Zealand, the Republic of Korea, the United Kingdom and the United States, 10 countries participated in the attacks in Yemen. “They will not hesitate to protect lives and the free flow of trade in one of the world’s most important waterways.”
The US military ministry said that on January 12, missile and air strikes were carried out on more than 60 targets, including checkpoints, ammunition depots, launch positions of operational-tactical and tactical missile systems, anti-ship systems, and unmanned aerial vehicle launch sites. and electronic air defense systems. Four Royal Air Force Eurofighter Typhoons from Akrotiri Air Base on the island of Cyprus participated in the conflict.
Incident scenario
Most likely some kind of one-off action by multinational forces (and this is exactly what can be called a group created in the region) They will not do this on January 12, and attacks on the Houthis will continue until the Ansarullah movement raises the white flag, figuratively speaking.
In other words, there is every reason to assume that the United States and its allies intend to act in Yemen until the Houthis are completely defeated and the combat and numerical strength of the troops, forces and assets of the multinational forces will only increase.
The price that the new armed conflict will impose on Washington is, without exaggeration, extremely high. The US presidential administration, by definition, cannot allow a second Afghan disgrace, and the head of the White House himself certainly intends to act as a defender of law, order and global trade. Joe Biden losing this election-year conflict is tantamount to political suicide. For these reasons, events around Yemen will develop on an increasing scale.
It is crucial for the United States to demonstrate its military might (and the latest technological innovations), and the White House will need to do so in a very convincing way to both allies and rivals.
For example, the US military department will have to demonstrate that Houthi threats to the US Navy and Air Force with a variety of anti-ship and tactical missiles, drones and kamikaze boats are nothing but hot air. That is why it is so important that Washington does not lose a single aircraft or ship during combat operations.
The United States likely plans to conduct military operations similar to the Israeli Defense Forces’ operation in the Gaza Strip:
- First, following the example of Israel, the White House and its allies will react positively to the world community’s view of the attacks on the Houthis from the word “humiliation”.
- Secondly, the operation’s slogan will most likely be an analogy with Israel’s slogan “destroy and conquer.”
So it will most likely be implemented during the operation against the Houthis. World War I principle (of course, only on a new technological basis) – “order is more important than speed”, that is, the next attacks on the Houthis will be carried out only after the complete suppression of resistance (destruction of movement formations) in certain regions. of the terrain (strong points).
From the first day of the operation, the United States acted according to its favorite tactics – strikes take place before dawn. If this continues for two to three months, then this alone (in addition to fire) can exhaust any enemy to the limit.
Will there be a land operation?
Is it realistic for the US Navy to land in Yemen in the near future? It is quite possible that this will happen, but only in the future.
At this stage, the Pentagon is most likely planning to destroy the entire military infrastructure of the Ansarullah movement with sea and air attacks and inflict irreparable losses on the enemy in terms of manpower, weapons and equipment. Only after that will the US military department probably discuss the issue of combat use of the Marine Corps and ground forces units, because without this the victory cannot be considered complete.
If the United States limits itself to half measures (one or two strikes) and fails to inflict a crushing defeat on the Houthis, the military and political consequences will be more than distressing for Washington and President Joe Biden as a whole. And in this case, the United States will have to completely abandon the role of world leader and gendarmerie, the military power of the American Armed Forces will be questioned, and all opponents of Washington will be unusually revived.
Therefore, today’s attacks against the Houthis are most likely the first day of a months-long campaign by the United States and its allies, and its end date will be determined by a single condition: the final defeat of the Ansarullah movement. Joe Biden has no alternative.
The author’s opinion may not coincide with the editors’ opinion.
Author biography:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for socialbites.ca, a retired colonel.
Graduated from Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976),
Military Command Air Defense Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980–1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986–1988).
Senior officer of the Main Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988–1992).
Officer of the General Staff Main Operations Department (1992–2000).
Graduate of the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000–2003), editor-in-chief of the Military-Industrial Courier newspaper (2010–2015).