spanish economy It will slow down its growth in 2024 affected by the blowing wind inflation, the increase in interest rates Established this year by the European Central Bank (ECB) price increase And Slowdown in the Eurozone Among others. A. macroeconomic scenario today conditioned by a condition geopolitical context Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the conflict in the Middle East There is uncertainty in the markets.
Knowing the keys to current events and deciphering what the new year looks like for Spain and the world, El Periódico de España and El Periódico, sponsored by CaixaBank, A meeting was held in Madrid with the participation of expert voices under the title Perspectives 2024: Economic challenges.
Judit Montoriolchief economist CaixaBank Researchwas responsible for presenting a new report prepared by the bank’s analysis service. The expert assured that 2024 “will be marked as follows”: digestion of complex situation of several years“.
He emphasized: ” The energy market recovered very quickly In 2022 and this has led to some consequences The outlook for 2023 is quite negative“. And he explained: “As the year goes byThese tensions have easedThey made us wait a much more positive year More than we expected.”
Judith Arnal, senior researcher at Center for European Policy Studies (CEPS) And Elcano Royal InstituteHe emphasized that “we are in a moment of slowdown in the economy” and reached an agreement with CaixaBank Research. Growth forecast for Spain this year is 2.4% and next year, about 1.5%. “It is undeniable that in 2023 Spain has resisted better than the entire euro zone Due to the sectoral structure of our economy We are very focused on the service sector already one Less dependence on Chinese and Russian economies“added.
Luciana Taft, Consultant in the Field of Economy and Markets Financial Analysts International (AFI), also pointed out that the market was “moderate”. “Nobody would have thought that We were going to have a soft landing“There are risks and dark clouds on the horizon, but quite comfortably,” he added.
Juan Pablo Riesgoresponsible partner EY Insights, highlighted the opportunity european funds Next generation for the purpose of realizing reforms and investments. EY research service expert says ‘there’s a lot’ There is room for improvement in investment absorption (facilitating this assistance)”.
María Jesús Fernández, Senior economist in Economic Situation Funcas, in terms of long-term prospects” The current state of the economy is positive He stated that “considering the conditions we are in”, but “there is a very worrying situation in the background”. lack of productivity in spain and Difference in GDP per capita compared to the European Unionexpanding rather than contracting.”
CaixaBank Research believes that: One of the growth pillars of next year will be consumption. “The increasing trend in consumption is related to the following factors: demography (A sharp increase in population), provisional rate (reduction of such contracts) and household savings rate (better than expected),” Montoriol said.
Judith Arnal In this context, “growth is above all domestic demand and not much more than external demand and domestic demand will also increase support private consumption“.
Inflation and interest rates
Luciana Taft confirms the fight against is right Inflation ‘still far from winning’ And it will continue to be complex. The AFI expert believes that “implicit expectations in different market instruments for inflation over the medium term are above 2%.”
María Jesús Fernández pointed out that the inflation rate will be affected Withdrawal of anti-inflation measures. “When will there be a step effect Reducing VAT and tax on energy productsJuan Pablo Riesgo agreed with this analysis and emphasized: “This trend “The slowdown in inflation is evident.”
Judit Montoriol emphasized: “The path to reducing inflation has already begun Will continue in 2024“. As a result of this, and with regard to monetary policy, “At CaixaBank Research we foresee: First cut in interest rates in September next yearThis could possibly be brought forward and if inflation data continues to be this positive, maybe even before summer“Montoriol noted.
“It is very possible that they have reached their peak; now the question is: How long will they stay at this high level? “To ensure that inflation approaches 2 percent in the medium term,” he said.
Savings and employment
María Jesús Fernández wondered “How is it possible that employment behaves in such a surprisingly positive way?“and argued that now this” is a global phenomenon helping maintain family incomes and to prevent further delays.”
Funcas expert said: “Although we have experienced this situation The most intense interest rate increase in the history of the euroFamilies were able to sustain consumption and at the same timeincrease savings rate“and pointed out employment creation as “one of the positive points in the recent evolution of the Spanish economy.”
Luciana Taft emphasized family savings. “One of the main problems is this: we don’t save” he stated. Taft complained that “it was not in our control” in Spain financial education and we don’t have temporary savings“and families only during the pandemic Save “forcibly”.
Judit Montoriol said: Job creation in Spain has been “very positive”. “The latest data already points to a situation” more moderate job creationbut they are still positive and therefore we expect them for next year as well. 300,000 more people will be employed in 2024“, it was stressful.
Judith Arnal agreed with this idea and emphasized that the strength of employment explained much of the “soft landing” the economy experienced. “The Achilles heel of the Spanish labor market unemployment rate, It makes it hard to have a good thing vocational education system and it’s there qualified population for jobs “This will be needed in the future,” he added.
At this point, Arnal emphasized the following: information and communication technologies (ICT) sector, this “has a huge impact on job creation.” “Employment is being created in the sectors” high added value such as technological or scientific” he emphasized.
“We live in this world,” warns Juan Pablo Riesgo (EY Insights) turbulent moment of transformation and transition Where companies need restructure your production systems And skilled workforce The expert pointed out that in this context, “working to increase productivity” is vital.
On the other hand, Judit Montoriol reminded: “We are a more debt free economyclearly demonstrated by really low debt levels impact on families and businesses”, but acknowledged that it was “lower than what we’ve had in previous cycles.”
María Jesús Fernández (Funcas) assured this: Debt level of Spanish companies lower than those of European companies and therefore “the increase in interest rates should have affected the accounts of Spanish companies less.” Economist, until next yearreduce structural deficit “like this Public debt moves towards sustainability“.
For Juan Pablo Riesgo, demand is very important. “Conceptually, a There is a great need for investment, energy transformation and digital transformation “Companies also have the will to do this,” he said.
‘Next Generation’ help
Experts discussed the issue European Union recovery fundsaid today represents big challenge for companies and its implementation requires difficulties and It develops a little slowly.. In this sense, Luciana Taft assured that she had “invested heavily in European funds”, but also admitted: “It takes a long time to absorb them.”
Juan Pablo Riesgo pointed out that companies use their own resources from the moment a political decision to promote an investment is made until it becomes savings. “We are in such a crisis environment that increase this investment and we risk the future. It is very important that these funds flow to support the Spanish economy and companies. handle this transformation because there are many difficulties and risks but also great deals“It was stressful.
Riesgo also emphasized that this would be good so that the expectations in New Generation funds can be met next year. changing the way these investments are carried outwhich “clearly “They take a long time to arrive”.
María Jesús Fernández said European funds were “a inverter pulse At the same time, our public accounts are being consolidated.”
Funcas’ representative expressed concerns along the same lines:Investment in stagnating capital goods “It is below pre-pandemic levels,” he said, adding: “Fiscal consolidation is needed” in spain.
Luciana Taft (AFI) stated: We bet on European funds but for now they are “getting some sleep.” He admitted that “this has been done slowly and it has been very costly to assimilate them, not only in Spain but also in other countries.”
Tourism and real estate
Judit Montoriol emphasized this in the last part of the discussion: Important leverage of the Spanish economy has been and will continue to be Tourism. “Ours Outlook for 2024 here’s the thing The tourism sector continues to grow and contribute to the economybut it has more moderate growth rates,” he emphasized. CaixaBank Research expert concluded: The tourism industry needs to focus on the pursuit of “quality and sustainability”.
Montoriol also noted: Spanish real estate market According to the data of the enterprise “ Resists interest rate increases very well“. The data in the report reflects: ” Housing prices will continue to experience positive growth and a public deficit that will gradually decrease”.