watch lived in the world 2023With the escalation of the Ukraine war, a brutal resurgence of violence in the Middle East, and disruptions in affairs human And fundamental rights According to the analysis, it will continue in 2024 in different parts of the planet. Barcelona Center for International Affairs (CIDOB)This Tuesday, he presented the issues that will mark the international agenda of the coming year. In summary, as emphasized Pol MorillasCIDOB’s director, 2024 “will happen” year of pottery and weapons“Electoral processes in more than 70 countries and the impact of multiple conflicts simultaneously fueling global instability.
In total, more than 4 billion people, almost 51% of the world’s population, will be called to vote next year in some of the countries with the greatest demographic weight or geopolitical influence in the world, such as the United States and the European Parliament. will determine whether India, Russia, Taiwan, Mexico, Indonesia or Venezuela will participate in electoral processes. flow caustic democracy. “The majority will vote Hybrid or non-democratic systems“Some leaderships are using the ballot boxes to strengthen themselves,” he emphasized. Carme Colominacoordinator of the international grade. And most of these choices have a “thermometer“To measure the rise of the far right.
Artificial intelligence will have a special role. “This is already happening in a more innocent way, with messages being elaborated using artificial intelligence (…) but we may see more complex targeted campaigns. manipulating“, underlined Colomina. According to CIDOB, 2024 will be its year “explosion and editing“, after this December the EU reached a pioneering agreement to legalize this technology.
war in Gaza
The brutal attack launched by Israel on Gaza on October 7 in retaliation for the bloody attacks of Hamas will be one of the main issues of the geopolitical agenda of the coming year. According to Middle East expert CIDOB researcher Musa BourekbaThe next year will determine how the “next phases of the Israeli military campaign” will take shape. Benjamin Netanyahu He assured that they will continue in the Strip until Hamas is completely eliminated, despite the increasing violence. greater international isolation The situation in Israel and what will happen to Gaza when the offensive ends. On the other hand “regionalization of conflict This is already a reality, with the escalation of attacks by Houthi rebels in Yemen on merchant shipping in the Red Sea and its effects on the global economy, and the escalation of hostilities on the Yemeni border. Lebanonwith militia forces Hezbollah.
In any case, Bourekba emphasized that the difficult part will be to implement this plan. Plan to establish a Palestinian state This is what the international community demands, because limits of Israel and decolonization Two issues regarding the occupied territories that the Tel Aviv government would not be willing to address.
2024 will also be the year of so-called consolidation. Global South It is against Western hegemony, which will experience a critical moment with the expansion of the BRICS group (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) into Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Ethiopia and Iran. Together they represent 46% of the world’s population and 29% of global GDP. Although Colomina points out that the correct thing is to talk about “souths and norths” with increasing blocks “plural and heterogeneousIt is a situation where paradoxes may arise, such as the war in Ukraine, which until now was “the conflict that strengthened the union between the EU and the USA”, has become the factor that “increases the transatlantic distance”. donald trump He returns to the White House and turns off the aid valve to Kiev.