HE GDP of the Valencian Community will close the year 2.4% increaseAccording to the latest forecasts of CaixaBank Research, which represents growth same as national average and a tenth more than expected in the previous September forecast.
After making an improvement 5.7% last fiscal year (one tenth less than the average), Valencian economy “Remarkable resilience in the first half of the year“, according to those responsible for the working service. But the outlook in the second half, “weakening of foreign demandThis affects industrial activity and exports.” On the positive side, employment continues to be created at a good pace and the tourism sector is recovering to pre-pandemic numbers.
In this way, CaixaBank Research analysis shows that: work It improves better than Spain as a whole, with a 4.7% increase in subsidiaries in 2022 (compared to 3.9%). In October this year, growth slowed (2.8% vs. 2.6% in Spain), but the number of subsidiaries exceeded the level in October 2019 by 9.8% (+7.1% in Spain). Hospitality, healthcare activities and especially education These are the most dynamic activities of the last year in terms of employment. The unemployment rate stands at 11.8% in the third quarter of 2023; This figure is equal to the Spanish average and betters the records at the end of 2019 (14.1%).
On his part, his behavior Consumption becomes more affordable than the Spanish team. Thus, retail sales (by volume) are up barely 0.1% in 2022; this figure in any case betters that of Spain (-1.0%); In the January-September period of this year, it increased by 9.2% annually. annually (compared to 8.0%); As such, they are 6.4% above 2019 levels (+3.0% relative to the Spanish average).
Instead of, industrial production is developing slightly worse More than all of Spain. IPI, which grew by 2.3% in 2022, just one-tenth below the average, fell by 3.0% (compared to -1.0%) on an annual basis in January-September 2023, due to the impact of the weakening in external demand; In any case, this rate is 0.5% above 2019 levels (-1.1% nationally).
goods export After the previous year’s modest growth, they performed well in 2022: growing by 22.2%, slightly below the national average (22.9%). In a generally positive atmosphere, sales of semi-finished products and automobiles, especially chemical products, came to the fore. This year’s behavior has not been particularly positive, falling 3.6% year-on-year through September (compared to +0.3%), but they have exceeded 2019 levels by 22.3% (compared to +32.6%).
The weight of autonomy is high tourist activitiesbut is less dependent on international tourism than Spain: 52% of overnight stays at tourist facilities in 2019 were by foreigners (versus 64%). The recovery in the region has been more moderate: a 55.5% increase in total overnight stays was recorded in 2022 (+73.3% in Spain), with the January-September period of this year 3.1% above 2019 levels (+1, compared to 0) %).