This isn’t going to be a good year for the toy industry, and we’ve already had four. After years marked by the pandemic, collapse of supply chains, increasing costs and excess supply, 2023 will end negatively due to the decline in exports. The expected slight recovery in the national market will not prevent turnover from falling by around 2% in an environment where families’ disposable income is falling as a result of general inflation and the uncertainty created by war conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza. . These are estimates driven by the industry at the national level, but there will not be much difference for the province of Alicante, which concentrates 40% of production.
European markets, which are the main customers of the toy industry, are recording general declines in consumption, which are already reflected in exports in July, August and September, with a slight growth in the total figure by September 2023. The savings of 0.16% leaves 458 million euros. If this trend continues in the last three months of the year, more than 50 percent of annual exports will close the year negatively, with a decrease of between 2 percent and 3 percent compared to the 715 million euros achieved last year.
Imports, which increased by 22 percent in 2022, are regulated with a -15.54 percent decrease until September in 2023.
According to what the industry says, Companies closed the last campaign with a turnover of 1 billion 699 million eurosThis represented slight growth of 0.4%. However, the expected decline in exports and a strong readjustment of stock levels in 2023 will lead to a slight decrease in turnover between 1% and 2%, although a small growth in sales on the national market is expected. .
In the Christmas campaign, the behavior of the Spanish consumer, who sees toys as a basic need in homes with children in recent weeks, will be the key to closing the year positively. The October-December period represents 60% of total year sales. It has the greatest seasonality in Europe, almost 20 points more than Germany and 12 points more than Italy. December accounts for 43% of the year, with the last three weeks accounting for 25% to 30% of the total.
“Our year-end forecast for the Spanish market is for a very moderate growth of below 1%.“Consumers are postponing their purchases until the last moment,” says Fernando Pérez, director of Circana, a company specializing in the analysis of consumer behavior.
“If we add to the decline in birth rates that consumers stop having children at increasingly younger ages, The toy sector can only grow if spending per child currently rises by 211 euros per yearIt is a far cry from, for example, 331 euros in France or 389 euros in Germany. Another option is to onboard new consumers, in this case adults,” adds Fernando Pérez.
Circana president also emphasizes: Categories that are expected to stand out this Christmas include buildings, vehicles, mannequin dolls or electronic pets.One of the most active categories this year. “In the letter to the Kings of the Little Ones, we will undoubtedly find Paw Patrol, Gabby’s Dollhouse or Bluey. There are also good prospects for the adult market, with the over-age segment representing 25% of the market’s total sales and growing for 18 years, underlines 7.1%.
Licenses
The penetration of the licensed market in Spain, which is closely linked to characters in movies, comics or video games, is 31.5%.It outperformed the unlicensed market in 2023, compared to the European average of 27.5%, and this positive trend is expected to continue at Christmas.
Marta Salmón, president of the Association of Spanish Toy Manufacturers (AEFJ), underlines the following: “The industry continues to make significant efforts to minimize the impact of rising costs on the consumer.Because right now it is important to achieve growth, even if it is very small.”
The head of the manufacturers also argues that the Christmas campaign is “very important for the toy industry, which will try to introduce the best bets to the market in a few weeks and try to revive it.” to educate and provide news that entertains and entertains children and adultsprovides the values and quality of play time by contributing to the physical, mental and emotional development of children. “These qualities of toys are very important in a society that aims to improve the lives of its children.”
Therefore, this year, once again, a jury of experts selected the best toys of 2023; These awards recognize not only the best toy in traditional play categories, but also toys that motivate and deliver on the values of equality and sustainability. Children will change the world.