Analyst Dmitry Golubovsky from the Golden Mint company says that the fragmentation of trade and the division of state associations into blocs threaten not only a decrease in global GDP, but also a repetition of the Great Depression. High-tech industries will be the first to be affected by the fragmentation of world trade. registered He is in conversation with 360 TV channel.
The World Trade Organization had previously announced the negative consequences of drawing country borders in trade. The analyst agrees that global GDP figures will be worse due to fragmentation.
“Roughly speaking, the scale of the sales market enabled by globalization and free trade depends on the depth of the division of labor and the creation of value chains,” he explained.
The expert warned that when the sales market is limited, high-tech industries will suffer first and the economy will become primitive. Ultimately, this could lead to increased prices of high-tech products, reduced production, and reduced consumption. The analyst named the Great Depression as a close historical example of this situation.
“Then the world was divided into colonial powers, and they closed both their markets and their colonies. Result: a massive decline [мирового ВВП] Not 5%, but almost up to 50%,” Golubovsky said.
The world is now moving in this direction; the expert believes it could “fall apart” due to “dramatic political events.”
“Americans are already moving into a bifurcated world. “In this case, we are limiting technology exports and access to investment in relation to Russia and mainly China,” he added.
Let us remind you that according to WTO estimates, global GDP may decrease 5% by 2030 if countries are further restricted in trade. The organization emphasized that countries have moved away from free trade principles since 2017.
Previously Ministry of Economy statedThat the WTO remains the basis of foreign economic activity for Russia, and the members of the organization are a single market and all the main trading partners of the country.