In 2023, the birth rate in Russia will fall to its lowest level in the last 20 years, and the decline will continue in the coming years, but there is no demographic apocalypse in Russia. In this respect kp.ru said demographer Vladimir Timakov.
He explained that a similar decline was also seen in Western Europe, East Asian countries and China. At the same time, according to him, the birth rate in Russia in 2024 will be lower than “the catastrophic years of 1943 and 1999.”
“But this is not surprising. The truth is that fertility is affected by two factors: quantitative and qualitative. Quantity depends on how many potential mothers we have, quality depends on how many children the average mother gives birth to. So today we are at a historical minimum in the number of potential parents. There are at least a third fewer of them now than there were in the 90s,” the demographer explained.
Demographers say that payment of maternity capital is the best measure to support the birth rate in Russia. However, according to Timakov, the main support in this regard should be provided not for the birth of the first child, but for the emergence of the second and third. He added that the birth rate in the country could be increased by 20-25 percent “if the demographic policy is created correctly.”
At the end of August, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Tatyana Golikova at the National Projects Council meeting reported President Vladimir Putin said that the birth rate in the country in the first half of the year decreased by 2.3% compared to the same period last year.
Previously demographer guess “Secondary echo” of maternal capital and an increase in the birth rate in Russia.