The end of this century will bring us big changes in population distribution World. For starters, China will no longer be the most populous country (will be India), Congo and other African countries will increase their populations exponentially and For example, Spain will lose half of its inhabitantsUntil it remained at 23 million compared to the current 46 million. These are the trends that scientists have pointed out in successive studies that agree on the same criterion: from now on there will be an increase in population for several decades, but then humanity’s numbers will decrease.
From an environmental perspective, this decrease Overall reduction in impacts to the planetAccording to experts, but also will create other difficulties: How to properly care for and care for a growing aging population and a greatly diminished workforce.
In total, the world population is probably It will reach 9.7 billion in 2064 and fall to about 8.8 billion by the end of the centuryBecause women have better access to education and birth control, according to a study published by the journal Lancet It was confirmed in 2020 and later by other scientists.
According to researchers at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington School of Medicine, by 2100 a situation will emerge in which 183 of 195 countries will not have the fertility rate necessary to maintain their current populations. In this chart you can see how the population will vary from country to country.
Some Populations will decrease by more than 50% in 23 countries, including Japan, Thailand, Italy and Spainthese researchers said.
China’s population will decrease by half
In its place, Sub-Saharan Africa’s population could tripleThis will lead to an interesting situation where almost half of the world’s population will be African by the end of the century.
same study Lancet He also predicts that countries such as China will experience a serious decline in the working age population, which will harm their economic growth. may have negative impacts on the workforce and social support systems, researchers said. In fact, China will cease to be the most populous country in the world by the end of the century, with a population of ‘only’ 732 million compared to the current population of 1.4 billion.
But immigration can come to the aid of countries losing fertility rates; this could offset population declines, especially in low-fertility countries such as the United States, Australia and Canada.
Christopher Murray, who conducted the research, told CNN: “The world has been focused on the so-called population explosion since the 1960s.” “Suddenly we see this kind of turning point: We are rapidly moving from the problem of having too many people to the problem of having too few people“.
Population decline in Europe and Asia
By 2100, the fastest decreasing population will be in Asia and eastern and central Europe.
The report predicts that Japan’s population will drop from about 128 million people in 2017 to 60 million in 2100, while Thailand’s population will drop from 71 million to 35 million. Spain from 46 million to 23 millionItaly from 61 to 31 million, Portugal from 11 to 5 million, and South Korea from 53 to 27 million.
The populations of 34 other countries, including China, are expected to decline by up to 50%.
But in addition, Murray explained, not only will the population decrease, but society in general will become older, which will have a significant impact on economic growth.
“There will be more people who will need to receive government benefits, whether it’s social security or health insurance, and fewer people who will have to pay taxes.“he explained.
Black Africa will rise rapidly
Researchers estimate that sub-Saharan Africa’s population could triple over the course of the century. It increased from approximately 1.03 billion in 2017 to 3.07 billion in 2100.
The North Africa and Middle East region is the only other region predicted to have a higher population in 2100 than in 2017, with a forecast of 978 million compared to 600 million.
“Because fertility will remain high for longer, the relative proportion of the world’s population that is African will increase significantly. Following this trajectory, we will reach a point by the end of the century where half the world’s population will be African,” Murray told CNN.
The world population will become older
The study also predicts significant changes in the global age structure as fertility declines and life expectancy increases. In 2100, there were 2.37 billion people over the age of 65 worldwide, while the number of people under the age of 20 was 1.7 billion..
overall number People over 80 can be multiplied by sixIt increased from 141 million to 866 million. Meanwhile, the number of children under 5 is predicted to decline by more than 40%, from 681 million in 2017 to 401 million in 2100.
These “dramatic declines” in the working-age population are occurring in countries such as India and China, the researchers said. They will hinder economic growth and lead to changes in world powers.
The report’s authors say the new forecasts highlight the “tremendous challenges” that a shrinking workforce will pose to economic growth and the high burden an aging population will place on health and social support systems.
The role of migration
The authors suggest Population decline can be offset by immigration and that countries with liberal immigration policies are better able to maintain population size and support economic growth even as fertility declines.
“If more people die than are born, the population will decline. And the only way to counter that is through migration,” Murray said.
While the report’s authors note that fewer people will have “positive impacts on the environment, climate change and food production,” an aging population could also face challenges.
“The problem is that the inverted age pyramid is a real problem with how societies are organized, how economies work, how taxes are paid,” he said. “What we really need to figure out is how do we transition from the situation we’re in right now,” he said.
Reference work: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30677-2/fulltext
…….
Contact address of the environmental department:[email protected]