Blow or sip. The Ukrainian Armed Forces face a difficult dilemma in deciding where to concentrate their forces on a military front stretching more than 1,000 kilometers. They cannot liberate two occupied parts of the country at the same time. east (Donetsk and Lugansk) and three south (Zaporijia, Kherson and Crimea). Russia is armed behind very strong defensive lines that it has prepared over the last year and a half: minefields, trenches and anti-tank traps.
According to the latest developments, Kiev seems to have made its decision A powerful blow on the southern front in Zaporizhia. This is where the first significant gains of the counter-offensive, which started three months ago, are achieved. The goal will eventually be divide the very large area it covers into two Russia (one-fifth of Ukraine’s territory) and the blocking of supplies and communications with Crimea, according to three war analysts who spoke to this newspaper. And finally attack the peninsula.
“Ukrainians They aim to enter Crimea, “This is very clear: because of its symbolic nature, because it can become a missile launch platform and because it has the most important port on the Black Sea for the Russians,” he says for this newspaper. Jesus Manuel Perez Triana, Security and Defense analyst. “The question is whether they can get in.”
This is not about reconquering all of Crimea, which was seized in 2014 and annexed by Russia following an illegal referendum. Make significant progress after cutting off supply linesThis already means a strong message to Russian President Vladimir Putin that he may lose more than he gains.
The strategy undertaken by Ukraine in Zaporozhia, Russian supply logistics to Kherson and Crimea. It is the division of the continuity of the occupied lands into two. Destroy two bridges: one literally (the bridge in Kerch connecting Russia with the occupied territories of Crimea); and another, figuratively speaking, “land bridge” It represents the controlled part of the Zaporozhia region according to Guillermo Pulido, PhD student in Strategic Studies and analyst for Ejercitos magazine. If these two bridges explode, the umbilical cord between the occupying country and Crimea will be cut.
Russian Army primarily uses railway lines for supplyPérez Triana remembers that the main bridge was on the Kerch bridge. That’s why a significant part of Russia’s war effort focuses on keeping the bridge safe, across which freight trains constantly pass. There is another railway line in the south of Ukraine, but since it is very close to the front, it is not used much for security reasons.
Within range of Ukrainian missiles
Another key to this strategy of Ukraine on its southern flank will be to be able to place advanced missile launch systems at a point where Russian logistics can reach their main targets. If they approach the Sea of Azov, they can not only attack, but also attack the Kerch bridgehead. Reaching ships that set out with war materials from Russia’s port Novorossiysk and those who sailed from the Sea of Azov to Mariupol with supplies.
“The Russians transport war materials to Russian ports by ships from the port of Novorossiysk (Russia). Mariupol and VerdianskWe pass the port of Kerch. From the Ukrainian perspective, the aim is to keep these two ports in a place where they can access M142 Himars and M270 MLRSs (which are the chain tracked version of the former),” explains Pérez Triana. “Both platforms precision missiles with a range of approximately 70 kilometers scope. Ukrainians once near these two ports and near the city of MelitopolIn Russia, another communications hub, there may be a change in trend: We will see a race against time between Russian logisticians bringing in supplies and laying bridges and railway lines, and Ukrainians destroying them. And while all this is happening, Ukraine awaits the arrival of the F16 aircraft, another of the milestones that could make a difference in the conflict.
On the same Wednesday, Ukraine fired several missiles at the city of Sevastopol on the Crimean peninsula. “The enemies attacked Sepastopol,” Russian officials confirmed, mentioning 24 injured people and a military facility being set on fire.
Ukraine shows progress
Advances on the front are slow and measured in a few square kilometres. So much so that some governments formed an alliance with Volodymyr Zelensky. They’re starting to get impatient. That is why Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba burst out with harsh words a few days ago, calling on “all critics” to “keep quiet” and go to Ukraine “to try to liberate a single square centimeter (of land).”
The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine this Monday took charge of the advance of its army on the southern front. After breaking through the first line of three Russian defenses, they ensure they will continue to infiltrate south of Robotyne, the Zaporizhia town retaken from the Russians in late August.
This opened the way for them to attack cities. Tokmak and MelitopolAccording to AFP, Deputy Minister of Defense Ganna Maliar told public television that this situation is important for the logistics of the Russian army.
There is also progress in the eastern Bakhmut region, where “progress has been made” The deputy minister said that the Ukrainian army is making progress in the Klishchiivka and Andriivka area. The Ukrainian army also “captured part of Opytne” near the city of Avdivka, another hotspot on the front.
According to Maliar, “near Bakhmut last week, approximately 2 km2 of territory was liberated, and “in total” on the flanks of this city “49 km2” has been liberated since the start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive in June.