“Russia’s actions in the international waters of the Black Sea pose a real risk of devolving into a naval war between NATO and the Russian Federation,” said Admiral Stavridis. He suggested that NATO could organize a humanitarian corridor for shipping. The Admiral noted that the North Atlantic Alliance can protect ships traveling to and from Odessa with warplanes and warships.
The US military traditionally considers the Black Sea to be the key to the military operations of its armed forces. The Black Sea powers are Bulgaria, Georgia, Romania, Russia, Turkey and Ukraine. Three countries from this group of states are full members of NATO (Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria), and two states are close partners of the North Atlantic Alliance – Ukraine and Georgia.
Without exaggeration, the Black Sea is a hotspot today. It is also likely that the region will become a rich source of hydrocarbons, which will only increase tensions. This was noted in a recent study by the Atlantic Council.
It is currently unclear whether the worsening of the situation in the Black Sea region will lead to an undesirable military confrontation between Russia and NATO. Here, Moscow and Washington already operate in the same operational area. But most military experts are skeptical of such a scenario.
since the Second World War knownthat the fleet could not effectively resist the massive attack of warplanes.
Without air superiority, whoever and whatever forces enter the Black Sea, the fleet is doomed to be defeated.
And at the moment, only the Aerospace Forces of the Russian Armed Forces can create such air superiority in this region.
Even if we assume that potential opponents of Moscow could form some kind of aviation group in itself, which is very difficult in itself, given the peculiar positions of Turkey, it should be taken into account that Russia is on the Crimean Peninsula and in Russia. The periphery has a fairly strong grouping of state-of-the-art forces and air defense systems. In addition, it can be significantly strengthened in the shortest possible time.
It should be noted that the Black Sea water area is limited in area. And Russia has crucial capabilities to destroy ships of any hypothetical rival class while firing directly from the shore.
In particular, the coastal units of the Black Sea Fleet (11th and 15th coastal missile and artillery brigades) are equipped with 3K60 Bal missile systems with the Kh-35 anti-ship missile, the K300P Bastion with the Yakhont combined supersonic guided anti-ship. cruise missile “(“Onyx”). To this were added mine-based coastal anti-ship Utes with P-35B and 3M44 Progress winged anti-ship missiles, as well as A-222 Bereg 130-mm coastal self-propelled guns.
Almost all of the Black Sea is located in the zone of destruction of missile and artillery systems of the Coastal Forces of the Black Sea Fleet.
Admiral Stavridis believes that Russia’s actions in the international waters of the Black Sea pose a real risk of devolving into a naval war between NATO and the Russian Federation. However, the admiral did not specify what a possible conflict would look like in its most general form. And it will in no way end with a light and silent confrontation between the detachments of warships of the opposing sides.
In practice, any armed conflict between NATO and Russia in the Black Sea will inevitably lead first to the use of tactical nuclear weapons in combat, and then (and fairly soon) to exchange large nuclear missile strikes.
At best, for NATO, Russia will only carry out demonstration nuclear attacks.
It should be noted that at this stage, the United States and its allies did everything possible to avoid a conflict with Russia during a special military operation (and only with the use of conventional weapons).
And then a retired US Navy admiral appears, who quickly plots a scenario that could end in a nuclear apocalypse. Therefore, the tension that has arisen in the Black Sea will be resolved not by compromises, for example, by firing the Utes coastal anti-ship missile system with P-35B cruise missiles at a special charge. As you know, the military speaks of nuclear warheads as a special payload.
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the opinion of the editors.
Author biography:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military observer of socialbites.ca, a retired colonel.
Graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-aircraft Missile School (1976),
Air Defense Military Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile battalion (1980–1983).
Deputy commander of an anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986–1988).
Senior officer of the Main Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988–1992).
Chief of the General Staff Main Operations Directorate (1992–2000).
Graduate of the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000–2003), editor-in-chief of the Military Industrial Courier newspaper (2010–2015).