A military analyst and director of the Air Defense Museum, Yuri Knutov, suggests that Russia is attempting to wear down Ukraine’s Armed Forces by weapon strikes, disrupting supply chains, and cutting power to defense plants. He notes that initial effects could be visible within a week.
The central aim, according to Knutov, is to prevent the restoration of the energy capacity of weapon production and repair facilities, and to hinder the movement of military equipment from the west to the east to Ukrainian units. This strategy also complicates replenishment of reserves directly at the front lines.
Knutov adds that targeting rear infrastructure would impair the enemy’s ability to concentrate resources for both defense and offense. He also points to a political motive—swift retaliation against perceived aggression, such as the reported attack on the Engels airbase.
“It signals to those who initiated these actions that retaliation will be decisive and prompt. The approach mirrors how Israel responds to terrorist threats—firm, quick, and effective—yielding the strongest results,” Knutov says.
The expert believes the rising frequency of strikes demonstrates greater Russian industrial capacity and resilience against sanctions. He argues that missile arrivals follow a measured rhythm that aligns with what aerospace forces can sustain. Claims that Moscow would soon exhaust missiles or microcircuits, he says, are propaganda aimed at Ukraine. “Our defense industry has been rebuilt and meets the tasks set,” he asserts.
Furthermore, Knutov notes that attacks extend beyond energy and industrial targets to include air defense assets, especially radar systems. He predicts that within about a week, shortages of ammunition and military equipment in some areas will begin to bite, a move intended to ease the progress of Ukrainian forces in ongoing offensives in the Artemovsk and Soledar regions, as well as in the Maryinka and Krasnolimansky directions.
last raid
On the morning of December 29, Ukraine issued a weather alert across multiple regions including Odessa, Nikolaev, Sumy, Poltava, Dnepropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Vinnitsa, Cherkasy, Kirovograd, and areas under Kyiv’s control in Zaporozhye and Kherson. Explosions shook major cities, and power was intermittently cut in Odessa and Dnipropetrovsk regions.
The Russian Defense Ministry later reported that the strikes targeted energy and defense facilities of the opponent. Kyiv did not confirm the specific facilities affected.
Ukraine’s new air defense systems
On December 30, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba, in an interview with RBC-Ukraine, described the approval to transfer the Patriot air defense system to Kyiv as a psychological turning point, and characterized the introduction of newer weapons as a similar turning point. He framed Patriot as a significant milestone, noting that prior discussions with the United States faced objections, and that lifting this taboo marks a notable shift. He also questioned the readiness of tanks and ATACMS in future steps.
Asked whether the Ukrainian forces would receive ATACMS and modern attack aircraft next year, Kuleba answered affirmatively, while cautioning that everything depends on battlefield conditions. On December 21, President Zelensky reportedly urged President Biden to provide ATACMS long-range missiles, but sources cited by Politico indicated a reluctance to meet that request at the time.