Cristina Herrero, leading AIReF, recently offered an assessment aimed at clarifying the long‑term viability of public finances. Her message was clear: the sooner governments begin addressing structural issues, the smaller the eventual adjustment will need to be. The emphasis is not on quick fixes but on a measured, proactive approach that preserves essential services without letting debt grow unchecked.

The projections she cited rely on a baseline scenario that incorporates demographic shifts and migration trends to paint a path for the coming decades. In this scenario, the population is expected to climb from current levels to about 50.3 million by 2050 and around 52.1 million by 2070. With migration acting as a growth driver, the economy could average about 1.3% growth per year in the absence of new fiscal rules. Herrero stressed that these estimates are not guesses but founded on model outputs and official data inputs.

Under this framework, the public deficit follows a rising trajectory from 2026 onward, reaching a peak of roughly 8.1% of GDP in 2055 before easing to about 7% by 2070. Such dynamics reflect the pressure of aging and the associated costs in pensions, health care, long‑term care, and education, as well as the burden of interest payments on accumulated debt. By 2070, debt service could account for around 6.9% of GDP, underscoring the finite room for fiscal maneuver unless policies are adjusted.

Herrero argued for a comprehensive, cross‑cutting analysis of public finances that avoids treating pensions, health and social services, and regional accounts as isolated silos. The challenge, she noted, is not confined to a single department or level of government. Rather, it will emerge over the next decade as aging trends intensify and the balance between revenue growth and expenditure pressures shifts. In her view, a holistic, systems‑level approach is essential to understand how different components of the public sector interact and where reform leverage can be applied most effectively. The aim is to establish a framework that sustains core public functions while maintaining fiscal resilience in the face of demographic change and rising service costs.