Scenarios opened after the illegal annexation of occupied Ukraine by Russia

for months Vladimir Putin adhered to the first option, but the recent defeats of his troops in Ukraine forced him to change course by recruiting a minimum of troops. 300,000 spares. “It was a difficult decision for Putin because he delayed it as long as he could. army edition So he will involve the whole society in the war”, states Crisis Group researcher Oleg Ignatov, who lives in Moscow until the tightening of laws against opposition forces him into exile. ” annexation of occupied territories It has been nothing more than an excuse to legitimize the mobilization. military climbing what’s coming now

The Russian Army does not fully control a single territory. four ukrainian regions This week, the “referendums” organized by the occupying authorities at gunpoint ended here. All settled with ‘confirmation’ Integration into the Russian Federation It varies between 88% and 99%. none Donetsk none Luganskconstituent, donbas what east herson none Zaporia, in the south. But none of this will stop Putin from signing his annexation this Friday. 15% of Ukraine’s territorya annexation in violation of international law even friendly countries don’t like Serbian anyone Chinese they are ready to accept.

“Putin is trying to changing the dynamics of conflict because losing the war “The annexation aims to create the fiction that the occupied territories are as Russian as Moscow and will change the legal and political nature of these territories,” said Nicolás de Pedro, a Russia expert at the London-based Statecraft Institute, for a few weeks. In other words, the Kremlin plans to change direction. military aggression inside defensive war and give them credibility threat of using nuclear weapons In Ukraine, it is constantly repeated by its leaders. “If our territorial integrity is threatened, Russia will use all possibilities at your fingertips (in defense),” Putin said last week.

Nuclear threat to scare Europe

Boogeyman is nuclear technically possible, but its main purpose, according to De Pedro, is tyrant european Thus, when things go better on the battlefield, it forces Kiev to sit down and negotiate. His troops not only recaptured the area. Kharkovbut while continuing to liberate key towns in the Donbas, demotivation of russian troopsher lack of material or your poor preparation. “Putin needs an exit and there is no way out right now. He will try to scare the Europeans with the nuclear threat. force a negotiation”, says the analyst. His problem is that ukrainian counterattack continues to bear fruit and kyiv maintains its strong support Washington Y London This road doesn’t seem to have much of a future.

But there is hope in Moscow that annexation will correct some of the problems it has faced in recent months. starting with soldiers refusing to go to the front because their contract obliges them to defend only Russian lands. “By declaring the occupied Ukrainian territories part of Russia, the problem will go away,” said Carnegie Endowment analyst Alexander Baunov. There is also the issue of military motivation. “The army will be much more motivated if it defends the area. russian territorial sovereignty “More than any other Ukrainian region under their control,” said Dmitry Trenin, an analyst close to the Kremlin with the Russian Academy of Sciences.

In any case, time seems to be working against Putin now. Reserve force mobilization – first since Nazi Germany Invaded Stalin’s Russia In 1941– opened the box of thunder in the homeland. More than 300,000 Russians left the country to avoid hiring. The mobilization letters have also reached the mailboxes of the elderly and the sick, and everything indicates that they are specifically targeting the elderly. ethnic minorities. Protests and clashes have been going on for days. ” mobilization decree very uncertain”, explains Ignatov of Crisis Group. “There are no time limits, age or occupation restrictions, so the Department of Defense is trying to recruit as many people as possible.”

He even said that this week, the commentators on the first channel of Russian television will take action. one million people, instead of the 300,000 announced by the Secretary of Defense. “The longer the war lasts, the harder it will be for the regime to achieve social peace. The weight on Russian society is increasing,” says Ignatov.