Several deadly heatwaves have affected numerous cities over the past decade. This summer we saw it being produced and produced all over the world. The prediction is that the number of these phenomena will increase.. A study by the universities of Washington (UW) and Harvard (USA) calculated the effects of these potentially deadly phenomena around the world at the end of this century, based on future greenhouse gas emissions. The study was published in the journal Communication World and Environment.
“Record-breaking heat in recent summers will be much more frequent in places like North America and Europe.“The paper’s lead author, Lucas Vargas Zeppetello, who led the research as a doctoral student at UW and is now a postdoctoral fellow at Harvard,” says. By 2100, working outdoors more than half of the year will be difficult even if we start reducing emissions“, Go on.
Effects of climate change on heat waves threaten habitability of large areas of the earth’s surface. For example, the authors predicted a 16-fold increase in the occurrence of dangerous heat waves in Chicago.
Likewise, the very high temperatures they contain pose a threat to public health, as extreme temperatures promote heatstroke and chronic diseases.
“Given the deaths we have seen in less extreme events in recent years, such unprecedented events are likely to happen. be pretty deadly Without adequate adaptation,” Vargas told Zeppetello Sinc.
work, a combination of temperature and humidity of air, known as the ‘heat index’, which measures its effect on the human body. The US National Weather Service defines a dangerous heat index as ‘39.4°C and ‘extremely hazardous’ 51°C and is considered unsafe for humans for any period of time.
“These standards were originally created for those working indoors, in places such as boiler rooms, and were not considered for outdoor conditions. But now we see them,” continues Vargas Zeppetello.
Double the number of dangerous days
The study concludes: even if countries manage to achieve the goal of the Paris Agreement Crossing the ‘dangerous threshold’ to continue warming at 2°C will be three to ten times more frequent by 2100 in the US, Western Europe, China and Japan. In the same scenario, Dangerous days in the tropics could double by 2100covers half of the year.
“Our work shows a wide variety of possible scenarios for 2100. This shows that the emissions choices we’re making now are still important to creating a livable future.”
Instead of using the four future emission pathways featured in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports, the authors use a statistical approach.. Like this, combined historical data with estimates of population, economic growth and carbon intensity -The amount of carbon emitted per dollar of economic activity to predict the likely range of future CO2 concentrations. So, the study uses a method bRoasted with the possibility of calculating the scenarios of the century.
“It offers reasonable ranges for carbon emissions and future temperature and has been statistically estimated and validated from historical data,” said Adrian Raftery, co-author of the paper and professor of statistics and sociology at UW.
The authors translated rising carbon dioxide levels into a series of global temperature rises and then looked at how this would affect global monthly weather patterns.
3ºC at the end of the century
“We must drastically reduce our carbon dioxide emissions and do everything we can to meet the Paris Agreement’s target of limiting global warming to 2˚C. Our probability model suggests that the most likely scenario is 3˚C warming by the end of the century.. It may not seem like a big difference, but preventing it from happening would make an extraordinary difference, especially for people in the tropics,” says Vargas Zeppetello.
According to their estimates, there is only a 0.1% chance of limiting global average warming to 1.5°C by 2100, in line with the updated target of the Paris Climate Agreement. Instead, the change in global average temperatures is most likely It will approach 2˚C in 2050.
The tropics can experience dangerously high heat levels most days, and mid-latitudes are expected to suffer. Deadly heat waves every year between now and 2100.
In the worst-case scenario, if emissions are not controlled, extremely dangerous conditions could be common in countries close to the equator, particularly in India and sub-Saharan Africa, where people should not stay outside for long.
“This extremely scary Imagine what would happen if he exceeded the extreme danger threshold 30 or 40 days a year. They’re still scary scenarios we have the ability to prevent. This study shows you the gap, but it also shows that we have an opportunity to prevent these scenarios from happening,” says Vargas Zeppetello.
“The number of days with dangerous temperature levels in the mid-latitudes will more than double by 2050,” adds David Battisti, professor of atmospheric sciences at UW and co-author of the study. “Even for the lowest estimates of carbon emissions and climate response, by 2100 most of the tropics will experience ‘dangerous’ levels of heat stress for almost half the year,” he warns.
Spain, one of the most threatened places
According to Vargas Zeppetello: “Mediterranean countries and especially Spain will be at the top of Europe, where these thermal limits, which can be very dangerous for human health, will be regularly exceeded.. Given the consequences of these temperature levels, Spain needs to be prepared for annual extreme heatwaves, perhaps in the coming decades.”
The results highlight the need for both. to reduce future greenhouse gas emissions greenhouse, as well as to protect the population. In other words, if adaptation measures are not taken, there may be a large increase in its incidence. heat related diseasesespecially aelderly outdoor workers and people with less income. They also call for more ambitious targets to reduce emissions.
Reference work: https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-022-00524-4
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Environment department contact address:crisclimatica@prensaiberica.es
Source: Informacion
