The cap on gas reduces the price of electricity by 14.8% and is close to the Government’s calculation.

According to final data from the OMIE operator, the average price per megawatt hour (MWh) during this period was 254.7 euros.about 43.5 euros less It was more than the 298.87 Euros that would have been paid had the mechanism not been available, so for now, it would be slightly below the Government’s calculations.

In particular, the executive predicted that this gas limit for electricity generation, which will be in effect until 31 May 2023, will reduce the electricity price by 15% to 20% for more than ten million users in Spain.

Spain is below the European average

Since last June 15, when the effects of this measure began to be felt, electricity has grown from around €91.9 a year ago to an average price of close to €255/MWh, an increase of almost 176.21%.

And this, despite being a moderator, market continues to be affected by geopolitical tensions derived from occupation of Ukraine, A possible gas supply cut by Russia, one of its main suppliers, caused an atmosphere of uncertainty in Europe.

For now, the consequences of the war have already hit the major European economies, which are more dependent on Moscow for energy than Spain and Portugal.

Actually, this scenario is on more than one occasion, intraday highs close to 650 Euro/MWh, especially in ItalyThis corresponds to the first two months of the “Iberian exception”, where electricity averages 418.79 euro/MWh.

By comparison, MWh in Spain is 39% cheaper than in Spain Italyand 18% lower Germany, reached an average of 309.41 Euros.

this instability also marked France, where the maximum value was recorded on 20 July at 589.22 Euros in MWh; however, the average of these two months was 372.29 euros, which is 31.5% above the Spanish rate.

One factor to consider is that in the middle of that month, Russian giant Gazprom interrupted gas supplies reaching Germany via the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline for maintenance duties.

When service is restored, the volume has decreased from the previous 40% to 20% of their capacity.

In those days, electricity rose in both Italy and Germany, with MWh of 564.2 and 473.3 euros, respectively, on 28 July.

In contrast, the previous day Nord Stream 1 interruption In the Old Continent, it dropped its latest low: Italy, 324 euro/MWh; France, 224.4 euro/MWh and Germany, 115.2 euro/MWh.

futures markets

Futures markets show better balance for the last part of the year, and agencies can purchase electricity in Spain for the fourth quarter, corresponding to 490.99 euros in Germany and 909.81 euros in France.

For the first quarter of 2023, which coincides with the colder months, the price of futures rises to €975.84 in France, €487.26 in Germany and €180 in Spain.

The mighty weight of warrior loops

However, geopolitical tensions are not the only reason why markets spiral out of control. increase in electricity demand this summerIt will go down in European history as one of the hottest.

Thus, on July 14, during the second heat wave, demand peaked in Spain after reaching 38,284 MW at 14:19, above 38,248 MW the previous day, according to data from Red Eléctrica de España (REE). broke the annual record. .

combined cycles, more expensive to use gas generate electricityIt is crucial to meet high demand on peak hot days when renewable energies contribute less to the “mix” due to climatological limitations.

An example of this is that, on 16 July, the adjustment to be paid by those benefiting from the gas ceiling to compensate for these plants reached a maximum of 169.11 Euro/MWh, exceeding the price set for electricity at the auction.

According to the latest Statistical Bulletin of gas operator Enagás, 55% of the demand in the national market during that month came from the electricity sector, equivalent to about 17,200 gigawatt hours (GWh), which is 125.9% more than the same month. year 2021.

So far this year, gas demand to generate electricity has increased by 83.2% to 72,984 GWh.