this IBEX 35 It has been going through tough times since mid-2021. The index of the top 35 Spanish companies dropped more than 40% from 10,000 points between February and March 2020 and recovered as health improved. In June of last year, it had already cut most of that decline, at 9,300 points, 7% below the pre-Covid maximum. this Mountain goat in a downtrend with lower highs and lower lows.
The outlook for the economy did not improve either. In June, the Bank of Spain cut its growth forecasts for 2022 from 4.5% to 4.1%. A growth of 2.8% and 2.6% is expected in 2023 and 2024, respectively. Adds to all this most inflation Leakage weighing on consumers, which is 10.8%The largest recorded since 1984.
As of June 2021, the Spanish index ended up rising close to 60%. However, many companies and industries. Banking has a very important weight in Ibex’s performance. Three main financial institutions in the country account for 23.18% of the total index: CaixaBank, Santander Bank Y BBVA. The former broke a record recently at 3.64 euros and has since fallen by around 17% to 3.02 euros. In the case of the company led by Ana Botín, it has lost 26% since its value reached 3.5 euros for each share since May last year. Finally, BBVA stands at around 4.7 euros, 25% below the price achieved in November 2021. The banking index created by Investment Strategies was recorded as -27.15% between February and August 2022.
But for the first time this year, investors are beginning to believe that inflation could fall in the coming months. “The central scenario for Europe is this: a moderate recessionAlthough it is fraught with risks such as gas flow interruption in the autumn,” points out the latest report by ING.
The real estate sector is another field of activity that creates problems in the stock market. However, the behavior of each value is different depending on its properties. For example, Metrovacesa, a developer mostly owned by Banco Santander and BBVA, fell just 6% in YTD as Mexican businessman Carlos Slim’s takeover bid served to save the value.
Another important factor is the scarce free quote (ring opening) which there are many companies. This is the case of the housing developer. Aedas Homes accumulating more than 40% negative revaluation. The Castlelake fund owns 71.52% of the company, so trading small bundles of shares easily raises or lowers the price.
Major Real Estate Investment Companies of Ibex (Socimis), Merlin and Colonial have acted the opposite way in recent months.. The company, led by Ismael Clemente, has been flat since the beginning of the year, but recorded a lot of volatility after selling a large portfolio of bank branches for close to €2,000m. Colonial is close to levels reached at 6.65 euros per share, at the lows of the pandemic. Tapping the lows, it has recovered 14%, but has accumulated a drop of more than 30% since June 2021.