Analysts forecast Euribor to be between 1.5% and 1.9% this year.

Last month, the indicator touched 1%, closing at an average of 0.992% after reaching 1.2% with the European Central Bank’s (ECB) raising interest rates by 0.50 percentage points. In every situation, around the levels of ten years ago.

In any case, compared to a year ago, the increase is very significant, because in July 2021 the Euribor stood at -0.491%, which is just over 300%, or likewise 1.5 percentage points. So far in August, the daily rate has moved between 0.94% and 0.96%, implying a certain moderation of the trend.

The increase, however, goes into the pockets of floating rate mortgage holders with more than four million users. Anyone with over 30 years of mortgages of €150,000 at Euribor + 0.99 interest and who had a review in July will see how mortgage payments have increased by €100, ie from paying €448.72 per month to €549.49 per month. as of this review. This represents an increase of 1,209.24 euros per year.

The banking sector, which has experienced real growth in recent months boom in marketing Mortgages estimate that, in any case, families can withstand increases in interest rates of between 1% and 2%.

Inside CaixaBank Research They estimate the 12-month Euribor at 1.48% this year and 1.78% by the end of next year. This work continues, in the opinion of the service dynamism of new mortgagesas reflected in the presentation of results for the first half of major financial institutions.

CaixaBank expects the private sector loan portfolio to grow (0.5%) in 2022. Credit will hurt households uncertainty The conflict in Ukraine is associated with a decline in consumer confidence and consumer spending, but they predict the housing and consumer portfolios will record positive rates.

CaixaBank increased mortgage issuance by 58% in the first half of the year, and for the first time in more than a decade, new hires outnumber layoffs. Forecasts are that the real estate market will continue to be strong in this segment in the second half as it is very dynamic.

In any case it is expected Some slowdown from September, but not because of the increase in rates, but also because of the increase in prices and the low strength of the economy. However, there are other factors that indicate that the demand for real estate will continue. For example, foreign demandrepresents 14% of the total. In some communities, such as the Balearic Islands or the Levante region, this rate reaches 30%, according to CaixaBank Research.

Inside Banco SabadellAlso recording record mortgage grants, it predicts one-year Euribor “will not rise above 2% or 2.5% by the end of 2023”. Although everything depends on the development of inflation. For bankinter analysts, the annual Euribor will wrap around 1.90% this year; 2.20% in 2023 and 2.00% in 2024.

In any case, the market has changed. Fixed rate mortgagesIt ranges from 25 to 30 years, currently between 1.7% and 2.9%, and between 2.2% and 4.3% (without bonuses, i.e. no obligations such as direct payroll deposit or contracting with other products). On the other hand, variable rate ones with 30-year maturity start at 0.6% to 1.87% in the first year and the difference ranges from 0.6 to 0.89 and if subsidized (others with customer with link) Product: %s); With a subsidized first year from 0.6% to 2.97% and a spread from 0.95 to 2.05.

The rising trend for families’ fixed-rate mortgages continued until a few months ago, when the 12-month Euribor starting in January started to rise, leaving negative ground last April, and even Exceeding the %1 mark, which has not been reached for twenty years. They currently make up about 16% of the total stock.