After decades of uninterrupted increases in greenhouse gas emissions, scientists are not ruling out this possibility. 2024 may be the first year the curve finally starts to decline. This is a historical moment, the first step towards the ‘cure’ of the main disease the planet is suffering from: global warming. Scientists from the University of Exeter (United Kingdom) published a report in which they predicted that 2024 will actually be the first year in which emissions into the atmosphere decrease.
According to the magazine New ScientistCO2 emissions and the greenhouse effect have been constantly increasing on Earth since the Industrial Revolution andThe year 2023 was no exception; emissions increased by 1% compared to the previous year. As the Global Carbon Budget compiled by Pierre Friedlingstein of the University of Exeter shows.
But, Things may change in 2024Given the unstoppable progress of renewable energies that, according to these scientists, have managed to bend the harmful CO2 curve. And despite the fact that the industrialization of the planet not only stabilizes but continues to increase, the predominance of clean energies is increasing, The ‘miracle’ of reducing these emissions without slowing down the economy.
China’s key role
All predictions made so far, including those of the International Energy Agency (IEA), showed that emissions from fossil fuels (oil, gas and coal) would reach their maximum peak in 2025 and would gradually decline after that date. . However amazing behavior renewable and its continued expansion in the industrialized powers (Europe, China and the USA) allow us to bring forward a long-awaited date in a year. Also progressive popularization of electric cars, Reaching truly significant levels in China, as in some European countries, is another factor that determines 2024 as the key year. This is the ‘beginning of the end’ of dirty fuels; But this is an ending that will not happen overnight.
A study published last month by the Helsinki-based Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) found that emissions China will peak in 2030and this despite the fact that his government has recently continued to approve the construction of coal-fired power plants to meet its energy needs.
But decarbonization efforts are even bigger: Lauri Myllyvirta, chief analyst at CREA, said the country’s emissions will likely be “Structural decline” from 2024.
Estimates of other organizations, Peak emissions for 2030 now look overly conservative. Although these are based on the real fact that many oil-producing countries intend to increase oil production, the reality is that a never-before-seen expansion of renewable energy sources is expected.
The target agreed at the Dubai climate summit COP28 is to reach zero emissions by 2050.
Experts believe this is the only way to limit global warming 1.5°C higher than pre-industrial levels. This is a target that will be difficult to achieve (some see it as impossible even if emissions are at best), but at least it will not be exceeded by much, or at least not for a very long time when it is exceeded.
Reference work: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2408609-2024-could-finally-see-greenhouse-gas-emissions-start-to-decline/
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Contact address of the environmental department:krisclimatica@prensaiberica.es
Source: Informacion
James Sean is a writer for “Social Bites”. He covers a wide range of topics, bringing the latest news and developments to his readers. With a keen sense of what’s important and a passion for writing, James delivers unique and insightful articles that keep his readers informed and engaged.