Seismologists have long known about the fractal nature of seismicity, so the scientists’ results from NUST MISIS cannot be called exploratory. Additionally, without publishing an article in a scientific journal, it is difficult to judge the predictive value of the work done, said VIOYu, head of the seismic hazard laboratory of the Institute for Earth Physics. Schmidt RAS, Doctor of Physical and Mathematical Sciences Alexei Zavyalov.
Previously, it was known that NUST MISIS experts have proven that during the seismic activity of the earth’s crust, there are models that can be used to predict severe shaking within six months. The dynamics of natural disasters in graphics show self-similarity when a piece is the same as the whole picture. This is called the fractality property.
“I don’t think it’s a discovery. Seismologists have known about the fractal nature of seismicity for a long time – about 30 years. The concept of fractalism emerged in the mid-80s, and since the early 90’s seismologists have already used it in their work. Also, at that time, with my colleagues from other universities, I was talking about earthquake heralds. “I’ve published work on using the fractal dimension (one of the properties of the fractal process) to improve one’s prediction abilities.”
Also, the scientist noted that the article does not provide specific results of the work done by the NUST MISIS team.
“Among all that has been said, this is: “It is possible to predict that there will be an earthquake in half a year.” What does earthquake prediction mean? It means specifying the location, time and magnitude (magnitude) of an upcoming seismic event with a certain error. At least one of these parameters “If it does not coincide with the parameters of a real event, the estimate will be considered unsuccessful. I advise my colleagues at MISIS to publish a scientific article with specific data and results in one of the leading geophysical journals in Russia. Then the estimated value of their work will become clear,” said the geophysicist.
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Source: Gazeta
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