How could the bursting of the dam affect the Ukrainian counteroffensive?

“The explosion at the dam did not affect Ukraine’s ability to evacuate its territory,” the head of state continued. Chief of Staff ukrainian forceslieutenant general Serhiy Naev, similarly stated that they took into account the “insidious actions” of the Russians before their plans and strategies were devised. According to Ukrhydroenerg, the company responsible for the management of hydroelectric power plants in the country, “balancing of water levels in flooded areas will take place over the next four days”, suggesting that the situation can be reversed in a relatively short period of time.

Daily report

It is still difficult to know whether the claims of Ukrainian military and civilian officials have any truth to them or whether they are statements aimed at encouraging troops for the coming weeks. In its daily report on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Institute for War Studies (ISW) underlines that the increase in war activities these days may mark the beginning of the much-lauded war. counterattack it is recorded far from that area, especially in the Donbass, hundreds of kilometers to the east. “It is noteworthy that the flood-affected areas, namely those located in the flood zone within a 120 kilometer radius of the collapsed dam, are geographically very far from the front line areas identified by the ISW. The last combat activity in the last few days,” the report writes. The text ends, “Flood downstream of the Dnieper River will probably not affect the areas of conflict.”

Frankly, Government of Ukraine He did not confirm that this is exactly where the Donbas planned to carry out his attack. If the advance is planned on the Kherson front, the capabilities of the Ukrainian Army will be limited for a few weeks. “This creates a very good defensive position for the Russians,” the Polish military analyst told Reuters. Maciej Matysiakexpert stratpoints foundation and former deputy head of Polish military counterintelligence. In his view, the Ukrainian forces will not be able to use heavy artillery or tanks in this region for a month, and the forces in a defensive position will be given time.

But the waters did not only affect the capabilities of the local Army. According to Natalya Humeniuk, spokesperson for the Ukrainian forces in the Southern District, Russian troops had to withdraw from their riverside positions, which, in her assessment, was something they had not even anticipated. “They realized what they were doing and they’re evacuating (their force) because the east coast (flood) is the first affected area because it’s lower geographically and so the main water wave will fall there,” he said. .