Euribor up a tenth: closed May at 3.86%, but refuses to reach 4%

“Euribor curve, light climbs “It’s something he’s been through in the last months, something that could go on for a while,” explains iAhorro’s Mortgages director. Simone Colombelli.

And the thing is, in the four months since February 2023 (closed at 3,543%), this indicator has only increased by three-tenths, something “positive for those who already hold a variable rate mortgage, and also for those looking to hire it soon.” .” Because? Those who have to review their quota this month will continue to see variable-rate home equity borrowers. significant increases, each time they are slightly inferior to past revisions.

For example, they explain from iAhorro that those who have signed a 30-year variable mortgage with a margin of Euribor + 0.99% will have to pay an additional 279.72 euros per month if they have to do the annual review this month: up to now they had been paying 501.78 euros each month, and from that then he will pay 781.50 euros. it means you will spend 3,356.66 euros per year more on your mortgage. Had he had to review last month, this increase would have been slightly higher, although the April Euribor data is slightly lower: 288.99 euros per month and 3,467.84 euros per year.

This is because, review annual, lThe difference between Euribor’s value for May 2022 (0.287%) and May 2023 (3.86%) is almost two-tenths less than the difference between April 2022 (0.013%) and April 2023 (3.757%).

When will Euribor reach 4%?

The forecasts of almost all experts indicate that it will arrive next June. “If he doesn’t do it himself, it will be because it’s seen,” says Simone Colombelli, director of iAhorro Mortgages. with a new rise Mid-month announcement of interest rates by the European Central Bank”.

And on June 15, ECB chief Christine Lagarde is expected to announce new measures, among which there could be another rise in official interest rates, which stands at 3.75%. “Most likely, the European organization will raise them by 0.25 points again, as they did at the beginning of this May, but there is also the possibility of keeping them as they are and waiting to see what happens. meet next time,” says Colombelli. “Going back to higher gains wouldn’t make much sense in the current context.”

If this is fulfilled and the ECB raises rates by another 0.25 percentage points, the rates will reach 4% and according to the director of iAhorro Mortgage, “There may be a few days of surprise at official interest rates on this indicator, but then Euribor will be reduced to 4 percent if it doesn’t do it sooner.” As soon as this indicator reaches this threshold, the iAhorro spokesperson adds, “Euribor is likely to remain stable around this 4% and not rise any further.”

Which mortgage is better to contract now?

In recent months, the mixed mortgage market has rallied, and this month some banks have further lowered their fixed tranche rates, which are normally between 2.10% and 2.5% TIN. Colombelli in the variable part, “This mortgage is no longer so attractive. because in variable mortgage we can find differences around 1%+Euribor while much lower: up to 0.1%+Euribor”.

Regarding fixed mortgages, an iAhorro spokesperson comments:track about 3% TIN, down to the best profiles, the most economically stable, although there are organizations that still offer something below this interest”.