Government delays presentation of new ‘macro chart’ in line with Stabilization Plan

The government will not finally present this Tuesday new macroeconomic picture who will accompany Stability Program 2022-2025and the currently announced downward revision of 2022 GDP forecasts, in the context of high uncertainty due to the impact of the war in Ukraine and rising prices.

While First Vice President and Minister for Economic Affairs and Digital Transformation, Nadia Calviño, indicated that the new macroeconomic picture will be released this Tuesday, the Executive has finally decided to postpone his presentation and will no longer be presented at the press conference. Council of Ministers, as quoted in government sources to Europa Press.

Of course the stabilization program must be sent to Brussels before Saturday 30 April, so the Executive needs to have both the plan and the new ones ready this week. macroeconomic forecasts.

Head of Government Pedro Sánchez recently confirmed that there will be a downward revision to his GDP growth forecast for this year due to the impact of the war in Ukraine on the Spanish economy, but insisted that growth will remain flat. “strong“.

In a context marked by the effects of the war in Ukraine and rising prices, all national and international organizations They lowered their growth forecasts for Spain and raised their inflation forecasts.

Nationally, the Bank of Spain cut its growth forecast for the Spanish economy in 2022 to 4.5% and raised average inflation to 7.5%. Independent Authority for Financial Responsibility (AIReF) lowered its 2022 GDP forecast to 4.3% and placed inflation at 6.2%.

At the international level, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) He lowered his predictions by one point.Growth prospects for Spain (4.8%) placed them above other major economies in the euro.

With this panorama of uncertainty, the Administrator has chosen not to make constant revisions. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and other macroeconomic parameters and decided to stick to the established. And to do that you only need to start the forecasts twice a year, in April. Stability Plan they send it to Brussels and in the autumn to prepare the budget plan.

Therefore, estimations for September of last year were made for Turkey. updating the macroeconomic table It accompanied the General Government Budgets (PGE) for 2022, which estimated GDP growth of 7% this year, or a GDP deflator of 1.5%.

Regarding the unemployment rate forecasts, the executive predicted in September that it would be reduced to an average of 14.1% in 2022. Record numbers for Social Security membership already exceed 20 million people, according to preliminary April data released by José Luis Escrivá, Minister for Participation, Social Security and Immigration.

The Executive, which included in the budget plan that the deficit will decrease to 5% in 2022 and will continue to decrease in 2023 and 2024, will decrease to 4% and 3.2%, respectively, in the exercises. María Jesús Montero, Minister of Finance and Public Administration, recently “in the circumstances” to achieve its purpose To reduce the public deficit to 5% of GDP this year, despite the measures included in the shock plan to deal with the crisis arising from the war in Ukraine.

This improving the public deficit It will be reflected in the debt data as well, and Manager’s latest forecasts pointed to a decline from 119.5% to 115.1% next year.

next request

Just one year ago, the Executive was preparing to present the Recovery, Transformation and Resilience Plan along with the Stability Programme. 140,000 million European funds The restructuring it will take until 2026.

Although the shock of the invasion of Ukraine by Russia hit the economy, the Execution of the Recovery Plan “cruise speed” In the first half of the year, it plans to mobilize 24,000 million euros of calls.

To this end, the Government has already announced that it plans to request payment in the coming weeks in connection with the European ‘Next Generation EU’ funds, representing the highest resource utilization, corresponding to the second half of the year. 12 billion €It is linked to the fulfillment of some of the most important milestones of the Recovery Plan, such as the approval of job reform.

Moreover, in this context, it is particularly important to complete and extend the action of the Recovery Plan in connection with the already announced loan request. ‘Next Generation EU’‘, that this is what Spain can get up to 70,000 euros.

For this, the Ministry, headed by Nadia Calviño, began working with Government departments to prepare the appendix to the Recovery Plan. credit sue.

Source: Informacion


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