Spain will have a population of only 23 million in 2100, when the world population will decline.

From an environmental point of view, this reduction is a overall reduction of planetary impactsaccording to experts, but at the same time will present other difficulties.: How to sustain and successfully serve a growing aging population and a drastically dwindling workforce.

In total, probably the world population It will peak at 9.7 billion in 2064 and then decline to around 8.8 billion by the end of the centurybecause women have better access to education and birth control, according to a study published by the Lancet Confirmed by other scientists in 2020 and later.

By 2100, 183 of 195 countries will not have the fertility rate needed to maintain their current populations, according to researchers at the Washington University School of Medicine’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. This chart shows how the population will vary from country to country.

Some 23 countries including Japan, Thailand, Italy and Spain will see their populations decrease by more than 50%said these researchers.

It will fall to half of China’s population

Again, Sub-Saharan Africa’s population could tripleThis will lead to the strange situation that by the end of the century almost half of the world’s population will be African.

of the same study Lancet It also points to a drastic decline in the working-age population that will hurt their economic growth in countries like China and can have negative implications for the workforce and welfare systemssaid the researchers. In fact, China will cease to be the most populous country in the world by the end of the century and will remain with a population of ‘only’ 732 million, compared to the current 1,400 million.

However, immigration can come to the aid of countries that are losing their fertility rates; this could offset the decline in population, especially in countries with low fertility such as the United States, Australia and Canada.

“The world has focused on the so-called baby boom since the 1960s,” Christopher Murray, who led the research, told CNN. “Suddenly we see this kind of tipping point. We are rapidly moving from the problem of having too many people to the problem of having too few people.“.

Population decline in Europe and Asia

Around 2100, the fastest decreasing population will be in Asia and Eastern and Central Europe.

The report estimates that Japan’s population will fall from about 128 million people in 2017 to 60 million in 2100, while Thailand’s will fall from 71 to 35 million. Spain from 46 million to 23 millionItaly from 61 to 31 million, Portugal from 11 to 5 million and South Korea from 53 to 27 million.

It is estimated that the populations of 34 other countries, including China, have decreased by up to 50%.

But in addition to that, Murray explained that not only will the population shrink, but society in general will be older, which will have a significant impact on economic growth.

“Whether it’s social security or health insurance, there will be more people who need government assistance and fewer people who pay taxes.‘, he explained.

Black Africa will skyrocket

Researchers estimate that the population of Sub-Saharan Africa could triple over the course of a century. From approximately 1.03 billion in 2017 to 3.07 billion in 2100.

The North Africa and Middle East region is the only other region projected to have a larger population in 2100 than in 2017, with an estimated 978 million compared to 600 million.

“As fertility will remain high for longer, the relative proportion of the world population to Africans will increase significantly. Following this trajectory, we will reach a point where, by the end of the century, slightly less than half of the world’s population will be African.” Murray told CNN.

The world population will age

The study also predicts major changes in the global age structure as fertility declines and life expectancy increases. Worldwide, 2.37 billion people aged 65 and over in 2100, compared with 1.7 billion people under 20.

total number People over 80 can be multiplied by sixFrom 141 million to 866 million. Meanwhile, the number of children under the age of 5 is predicted to fall by more than 40 percent from 681 million in 2017 to 401 million in 2100.

These “dramatic reductions” in working-age populations in countries like India and China, the researchers said. It will hinder economic growth and lead to changes in world powers.

The report’s authors say the new estimates highlight the “enormous challenges” a shrinking workforce will pose to economic growth and the high burden an aging population will place on health and social support systems.

The role of migration

The authors suggest: population decline can be offset by immigration and countries with liberal immigration policies will be better able to maintain population size and support economic growth even as fertility declines.

“If more people die than are born, the population will decrease. The only way to counter this is immigration,” Murray said.

While the report’s authors note that fewer people will have “positive effects for the environment, climate change and food production,” an aging population may present its challenges.

“The problem is that the inverted age pyramid is a real problem of how societies are organized and how economies work, how taxes are paid,” he said. “What we really need to figure out is how to get through the situation we’re in right now,” he said.

Reference work: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30677-2/fulltext

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Contact address of the environment department: crizclimatica@prensaiberica.es