Covid, war and inflation in Ukraine are pushing the seams of democracy around the world

The study by International IDEA, an intergovernmental organization that has measured the democratic performance of 173 countries since 1975, leaves little room for optimism. slope Y recession“in the last five years of democracies, which in many cases were no better than they were in 1990, before the new and permanent”difficulties“As with the Cegg-19whose social, political and economic consequences are still felt or war in ukrainethat shook Europe and brought the world to a “new The Cold War“.

But the current danger situation The establishment of a democratic system is nothing new, nor is it directly caused by the above-mentioned threats. As she explained to El Periódico de Catalunya of the Prensa Ibérica group, Alberto Fernandez GibajaIt is the result of a study by one of the report’s authors. erosion process “well before the pandemic and war”, quality losses It is gradually undermining politics in various aspects such as the independence of the judiciary, the control of the media or the questioning of the electoral processes. rule of law. Another risk to democracy, according to this expert, is recession It is one of the most developed democracies. There is no evolution for the better.

“Death by a Thousand Cuts”

“Democracy is not in danger of dying of a heart attack, although there are exceptions, it is in danger of dying. losing a lot of quality of life through minor illnesses. Democracy died in military coups before, now it’s a death by a thousand cuts“small erosions in its structure and substance,” says Fernández. Covid, the cost of living crisis, and the occupation of Ukraine may be some of these “thousand cuts.”

Among the data provided by GSoD, the countries drifting towards Turkey between the years 2016-2021 draw attention. more authoritarianism they were more than twice as likely to move towards a higher quality democracy. Specifically, 27 countries scored worse, and only 13 countries improved. By his calculations, 52 democracies are experiencing some erosion in 12 democracies compared to ten years ago. 50% of non-democratic states significantly more oppressive At the same time, 2021 was the worst year on record, with the world losing two democracies: twist Y Tunisia.

The authors of the study are also concerned about the retreat in seven democratic states: Brazil, El Salvador, Hungary Y Poland experiencing serious declines, India, Mauritius Y United States of America They are in moderate decline. In these situations, the way their leaders use their power weakening institutions from withinAs Donald Trump did in his attempt to reverse the results of polls or scams in Budapest or Warsaw to undermine press freedom or women’s rights and the LGTBI community. “The questioning of the election result conducted by Trump meant before and after. Its impact at the global level is becoming clearer and clearer. MyanmarThe army used the same excuse. It is the same speech given in Brazil The remedy to combat such attacks is to “strengthen the independence of institutions as much as possible”, allowing the structure to resist anti-democratic attacks. .

citizen discontent

Another indicator that does not open a hopeful horizon is that the concept of democracy has been discredited by the citizens. according to the last World Values ​​SurveyWhile 47.4% of respondents in the survey conducted in 77 countries and collected by GSoD believed it was important, 52.4% agreed in 2017. The same survey showed that in 2009, 38% accept a leader they don’t have. To submit to the parliament’s inspection or ballot box inspection. In 2021, those who agreed rose to 52%.

Alberto Fernández finds a “relative” explanation for this alarming change in perception. persistent economic crisis A country where many democracies have lived since 2008″. Although there has been a recovery at the macroeconomic level, citizens neither perceive this sense of improvement nor believe that the situation may change in the future. indifference in society and animadversion towards a political system that opens up spaces for polarization“By offering populist rhetoric and solutions that are easy but impossible to implement in reality,” he adds.

All these indicators lead International IDEA to conclude that the current drift indicates a possible “emergence”. new status quo” which points to a highly volatile future full of uncertainties. A bad omen.