Gonzalo Bernardos: “Anyone who talks about falling is telling you it’s lowering your standard of living, he’s not”

They say that economists are never wrong in their forecasts. Why do I have to trust you?

Because I hit a lot. I was right in 2007 that the housing market was tightening, and I was right again in 2014 when I said it was recovering. It’s not that hard as long as conditions don’t change. The problem is, if there’s a Covid or a war. I’m nothing like a witch, I’m an economist who knows how to interpret trends.

Is squatting a real problem or a bloated one?

This is a huge problem because if I’m afraid they’re going to invade my rental home, what I’m definitely going to do is sell it. Then the rental market shrinks, the offer is lower than the demand, the price rises and many people may rent a room rather than an apartment.

rental prices it doesn’t stop being expensive. Is the solution to wear a hat?

Rental price controls have been implemented in many places and have always failed. Governments trying to regulate them are deceiving tenants by saying that they are a magic potion and that they can rent a house for 500 euros in the best part of Palma. We live in an emergency of populist options. It is absurd that a party that calls itself leftist, like Podemos, wants to carry out the housing policy that Franco did. In 1950, there were 81.5% of rental houses in the province of Barcelona. In 1980, after many years of rent control, the park rate was 20%.

So how do we fix it?

There are two options, but our governments do not like either. The first is to compensate a person who rented for a thousand euros because you asked him to reduce it to 600. You exempt that rent from paying the Treasury. Or that you won’t be paying IBI or the community if you agree to lease for a long time. Or you subsidize 50% of a future reform. The second option is slower: building a stock of public rental housing. The problem here is that some tenants say they won’t pay the rent, and the politicians don’t because they don’t dare to evict them. Another problem is that after five years many homes have been demolished and it is costly for management to rehabilitate them.

Purchase prices are also prohibitive. The Balearic Government appears open to limit the purchase of housing by foreigners.

Everyone wants to have foreigners with high purchasing power because that means quality tourism, more spending and more wealth for everyone. They start by saying that only residents can buy, then they will say that only those born in the Balearic Islands and then only those born in Palma can buy it. I doubt it can be restricted. Positions of those who want the Balearic Islands to be like 30-40 years ago. It now creates a wealthier community and more jobs.

Y more satiated in summer. There is a debate about the decline of tourist destinations. This is a concept economists tend to dislike.

Proponents of this will normally tell you that you have lowered your standard of living, they do not. His concern is not the rise or fall of the standard of living. You can’t tell someone who can’t get along that they’re even poorer. The environmental sector is talking about shrinking, but they use the environment to say that you have to be poorer to save the planet because they don’t have any economic models to create wealth. He also advocates the reduction of those who do not know how to solve social problems. There is a region of the Balearic Islands and what you can do is build more houses. But someone will tell you that if we build more houses we will lose the tourist attraction. You can’t get everything without some negative reactions, but a few turned out to be pretty cool. I request pragmatism from all governments, especially in the Balearic Islands. And that they do not reject tourism, they try to raise the quality.

He believes that tourism continues to be the solution.

For the Balearic Islands, tourism is not a problem, but a blessing. If I can take a large part of the rich in Europe, why should I refuse? They will spend money and make the residents even richer.

Euribor is back a headache for thousands of mortgages. How long will the ascent continue and how long will it be?

At least next year, the official rate of the European Central Bank will be 3%. And Euribor will reach 3.5% in the first semester. Most of those with adjustable mortgages will pay more than 4%, which will be a drama for many families. Minister Calviño should prevent this, but he does nothing. And it’s easy: mortgages stay for a fee, and what changes is the number of years of the loan. In this way, crime will be less and families’ economies will not suffer too much. Calviño is the accounting minister, he just doesn’t have a visor, but I haven’t heard any original ideas from him yet.

Are we going to say the word dreadful recession in 2023?

More than a recession, a recession. Spain is doing better than most European countries as it is less dependent on Russian gas. There will be a recession in Europe and we will be between a recession like in 1993 when GDP fell by 1% and a ‘very mild’ recession. We’ll catch a cold on the way to Germany UVI.

Will this recession in Europe bring in fewer tourists?

If I devote myself to cheap tourism, I will have trouble. Those who are committed to quality tourism will not have these because those tourists will continue to travel.

Should the minimum wage be raised again?

You need to increase it next year and it would be nice to increase it from the current thousand euros to 1,050. I would leave bigger raises for another time because we advised workers in the private and public sectors to raise their salaries below inflation. A 5% increase in those who are less paid will maintain their purchasing power. And in 2024 it would be time to raise it more than inflation.